Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceThe force, you see, flows one way in this fixture. Sheffield Utd have won both of their recent meetings with Portsmouth — a 3–0 at their own ground in November and a 1–0 away at Portsmouth in February — and the pattern of that dominance is written in the numbers. Over the last 20 away games, Sheffield Utd have recorded 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.8 points per game and conceding just 0.75 per match. Eight of those 20 away games ended in a clean sheet. Portsmouth, at home over 20 games, have managed 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses at 1.3 points per game, conceding 1.25 per match. The gap between those two records is the story of this fixture.
Portsmouth arrive with a 0–1 defeat at Southampton on 11 October, three days before kickoff. In their last five matches they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Three of those five saw them fail to score at all. Their last ten games tell a similar tale: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, 0.9 points per game. The home record over 20 games is not without its bright spots — a 2–0 over Cardiff on 5 September, a 2–2 draw with Blackburn on 19 September — but the overall picture is of a side that struggles to find the net and leaks goals in equal measure.
Sheffield Utd, by contrast, come into this with momentum. A 3–0 win over Lincoln at home on 10 October gives them a current run of one win, and their last ten games have produced 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses at 1.4 points per game. They have scored 14 in those ten, 1.4 per game, and in the three games where xG data is available they have conceded just 2 actual goals. The away record over 20 games — 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses — is the single most telling figure in this preview. A strong team on the road, you are.
The counter-argument, if you will, is that Portsmouth have shown they can score at home. Two of their last three home games produced goals — the 2–0 over Cardiff and the 2–2 with Blackburn. And Sheffield Utd's last five games include three losses, so they are not without their wobbles. The head-to-head, however, is not a long story. Only two meetings fall within the last 12 months, and both were won by Sheffield Utd. The older meetings stretch back 13 years and dilute the picture; what matters is the recent record, and that record belongs to the visitors. The past, it is, a thing of the past — but the recent past, that one remembers.
Key Points:
- Sheffield Utd won both recent head-to-head meetings (3–0 at their ground, 1–0 at Portsmouth's)
- Sheffield Utd's away record: 10W 6D 4L in 20 games, 0.75 conceded per game, 8 clean sheets
- Portsmouth's home record: 7W 5D 8L in 20 games, 1.25 conceded per game
- Portsmouth lost their last game (0–1 at Southampton) and failed to score in 3 of their last 5
- Sheffield Utd's last 10: 4W 2D 4L, 1.4 points per game, 1.4 scored per game
The wise choice, I tell you, is to trust the record that is written in stone. Sheffield Utd's away form and the head-to-head both point the same direction. I recommend the away win.