Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Portsmouth hosting Sheffield Utd on an evening, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear edge to one side.
Let's start with the away record, because that's where Sheffield Utd really shine. Over their last 20 away games, they've won 10, drawn 6 and lost just 4, racking up 1.8 points per game. Their defence on the road is the real story – they've conceded 0.75 per game and kept 8 clean sheets in those 20 outings. Portsmouth, at home, have won 7 of their last 20, drawn 5 and lost 8, managing 1.3 points per game. That's a gap that's hard to ignore.
Look at the last 10 games across all venues and the picture gets even clearer. Sheffield Utd have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 for 1.4 points per game, scoring 1.4 a game. Portsmouth have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 for 0.9 points per game, scoring just 1.0 a game and leaking 1.4. That's a team that's struggling to find the net and a team that's not.
The head-to-head adds another layer. In the last 12 months, Sheffield Utd have won both meetings – 3–0 at their own ground in November and 1–0 at Portsmouth's in February. At Portsmouth's ground specifically, the recent record is 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss for the hosts. The older meetings go back 13 years, but I'll be honest, those are dated and I'm leaning on the recent stuff.
Now, the counter-argument. Portsmouth are at home, and they're not a team that's completely lost the plot. They beat Cardiff 2–0 at home five weeks ago and drew 2–2 with Blackburn three weeks ago. Their home record does include 7 wins, and they've kept 4 clean sheets in 20 home games. Also, Sheffield Utd's last five has been a bit patchy – 2 wins and 3 losses, including defeats at Stoke and Fleetwood. The 3–0 win over Lincoln four days ago is encouraging, but it's one game.
The xG numbers back up the defensive story. Sheffield Utd have faced 1.42 xG per game over their last 3 matches with data but have only conceded 2 actual goals. Portsmouth, meanwhile, have faced 1.57 xG per game over 4 matches and conceded 7. That's a team that's been outworked in front of goal.
Key Points:
- Sheffield Utd's away record (10W 6D 4L, 1.8 ppg) dwarfs Portsmouth's home record (7W 5D 8L, 1.3 ppg)
- Sheffield Utd won both recent head-to-head meetings, including 1–0 at Portsmouth's ground
- Portsmouth have scored zero in 3 of their last 5 games and 5 of their last 20 home games
- Sheffield Utd's away defence: 0.75 conceded per game, 8 clean sheets in 20
- Portsmouth's last 10: 2W 3D 5L, 0.9 ppg – a side that's struggling for consistency
My verdict: Sheffield Utd away win at 2.92. The numbers tell a clear story – a side that's strong on the road, a side that's won both recent meetings, and a home side that's been blanked in 3 of their last 5. The market has Sheffield Utd at 34.25%, but the football says they're better than that. I'd put their chance closer to 43%, which makes this a solid value pick.