Portsmouth vs Wrexham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Pompey are in a right old mess at the bottom of the table, sitting 20th with just 13 points from 13 games. Their recent form is shocking - only 2 wins in their last 10 and they've managed a measly 7 goals in that time. That's less than a goal a game, mate!

Just look at their last few results: stuffed 4-0 by Birmingham, beaten 1-0 at home by Stoke, and lost 1-2 to Coventry. The only bright spots were two 1-0 wins against decent sides, but let's be honest, they're not exactly firing on all cylinders.

Now Wrexham, that's a different story altogether. They're sitting 15th but playing much better football. 4 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 losses in their last 10. They're scoring twice as many goals as Pompey (1.4 per game vs 0.7), and they just went and beat the league leaders Coventry 3-2! That's proper that is.

The stats don't lie here. Wrexham have way better shot accuracy (44.6% vs Pompey's shocking 23.1%), they're picking up 1.6 points per game compared to Pompey's 0.9, and they've actually got some momentum going.

Pompey at home? Not much better, I'm afraid. They've lost half their home games this season and are barely scoring. Wrexham on the road? Decent enough - 25% win rate and they're still finding the net with 1.25 goals per away game.

The bookies have got Pompey as slight favorites at 2.50, which to me looks like they haven't been watching the same games I have. Wrexham at 2.88 looks like proper value to me.

Key Points:

• Wrexham scoring twice as many goals as Portsmouth (1.4 vs 0.7 per game)

• Pompey's shocking recent form: 2 wins in last 10 games

• Wrexham just beat league leaders Coventry 3-2

• Portsmouth have lost half their home games this season

• Wrexham's shot accuracy nearly double Pompey's (44.6% vs 23.1%)

The Verdict: Sometimes you've got to ignore the home advantage and go with the form. Wrexham are playing much better football, scoring goals, and getting results. Pompey can't buy a goal at the moment. I'm backing Wrexham to take all three points here - the odds are too good to ignore for a team in clearly better nick.