Preston North End vs Bristol City Prediction

We've got a proper Championship top-six tussle on our hands this Saturday as Preston North End welcome Bristol City to Deepdale. Both sides are locked on 11 points after six games, sitting pretty in third and fourth respectively. Now that's what I call a Saturday afternoon belter!

Let's start with the Lilywhites at home. Under Paul Heckingbottom, they've been tough to beat on their own patch this campaign, taking seven points from a possible nine. Remember that 2-1 win over Leicester? Or holding league leaders Middlesbrough to a 2-2 draw? Proper stuff. But don't sleep on the Robins' away form under Gerhard Struber - two wins and a draw on the road, including smashing Sheffield United 4-1 and Sheffield Wednesday 3-0. That's some going, especially when you consider they've only conceded twice in those three away days.

Now, let's dive into the history books. These two love a goal fest when they meet. Five of the last nine clashes saw over 2.5 goals, including that 2-2 cracker back in May. And the numbers don't lie: Preston average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded at Deepdale this term, while Bristol City are netting 1.60 and leaking 1.80 on their travels. Do the maths - that's nearly three and a half goals per game when you mash 'em together. Even the boffins' Poisson model reckons we'll see about 3.10 goals.

The bookies have under 2.5 as the favourite at 1.72, but I'm not having it. With Preston's home grit and Bristol's away firepower, I can see this being a proper end-to-end scrap. Think 2-1 either way or maybe even another 2-2. Both teams have only kept clean sheets in 20% of their games this season - so chances are both nets will bulge.

Key Points:

• Dead heat in the table: Both on 11 points after 6 games

• Preston unbeaten at home (W2 D1) this season

• Bristol City: 7 points from 9 away (W2 D1)

• 5 of last 9 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals

• Preston home games average 2.80 goals, Bristol away games 3.40

Mr Simple's Verdict: Back over 2.5 goals at 2.10. It's the value play with both teams bringing firepower and leaks in equal measure. I'm giving it a 55% chance and the odds imply only 48% - that's proper value in my book.