Preview
Look, I'll be honest with you — this one has got me reaching for the beer before the kickoff even. The form gap between these two is the kind of thing that makes a man sit back and go, 'yoh, this is too easy.'
Ospitaletto have won 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 1.7 goals per game and conceding just 0.9. PRO Vercelli, on the other hand, have won only 2 in the same stretch, scoring 0.8 and leaking 1.8 per game. And the last two weeks? PRO Vercelli got thumped 0-5 at home by Lecco on 16 October, then lost 0-2 to Union Brescia on 9 October. They have not scored in either of those and conceded seven. Two straight losses, no goals. That is a team that is not sleeping well.
Ospitaletto are in a different world. Yes, they lost 2-3 at home to Pergolettese on 18 October, but before that they won 1-0 away at Treviso on 11 October and 2-0 away at Novara on 26 September. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses — not a bad road record for a Serie C side, and the 1.1 goals per game they score on the road tells you they can find the net away from home.
The head-to-head is split one apiece. PRO Vercelli won 1-0 at their ground in April, Ospitaletto won 2-0 at their ground in December. Both games finished under 2.5, both were BTTS no. This fixture tends to be tight and one-team-dominant, which suits the side in better shape.
Now, I'll give PRO Vercelli their due. Their home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, and they did beat Athletic Carpi 2-0 at home on 3 October. The H2H at this venue went their way last time. But that 2-0 win came about two weeks before the 0-5 collapse, and the current run of two scoreless defeats makes it hard to trust that home record right now. You cannot build a bet on a team that just conceded five at home and has not scored in two games.
Key Points:
- Ospitaletto last 10: 5W 3D 2L, 1.7 scored per game, 0.9 conceded per game
- PRO Vercelli last 10: 2W 3D 5L, 0.8 scored per game, 1.8 conceded per game
- PRO Vercelli lost their last two, scoring 0 and conceding 7
- Both H2H meetings finished under 2.5 with one team blanking the other
- Ospitaletto away: 5W 8D 7L from 20 games, 1.1 scored, 1.15 conceded
So here is my call: I'm going with the away win. Ospitaletto at 2.05.
