Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction

The force, as they say, is with the home side here. Qingdao Youth Island have won all three meetings against Dalian Zhixing in the last thirteen months, scoring seven goals and conceding just two. That is a record that does not whisper; it speaks plainly. The most recent of those meetings, on 15 May at Dalian's ground, ended 2–3 in Qingdao's favour, and the older meetings stretching back to April 2025 are historical record only, yet the pattern has never wavered.

The structural numbers tell a similar story. Across their last 20 home games, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses, averaging 1.55 points per game and conceding just 1 goal per match, with 6 clean sheets in that span. Dalian Zhixing, on the other hand, have managed 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 away games, averaging 0.85 points per game and conceding 2.05 per match, with just 2 clean sheets. The gap in points per game — 1.55 to 0.85 — is a wide river for the visitors to cross, and the defensive records make the point even more sharply.

Yet, the young one must also see the other side of the coin. Dalian Zhixing arrive in fine form. Three wins and two draws from their last five, with 2.2 points per game and a current run of two victories in which they scored three and conceded one. They have scored in every one of those five matches. That is momentum, and momentum, as I have always said, is a thing that must be respected. Their latest 10 games show 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with 1.2 goals scored per game and no match in which they failed to score.

Qingdao Youth Island, by contrast, have drawn their last two matches and sit at 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses from their last five. Four of those five games finished under 2.5 goals, and two were 0–0 draws. The flatness of that run does not inspire confidence in a positive outcome, but it does not break the back of the home record either. Their latest 10 games show 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, with 5 clean sheets in that stretch.

The head-to-head is small — three meetings — and the most recent was four months ago. The older meetings, reaching back to April 2025, are historical record and do not carry the weight of current form. Still, the pattern is consistent: Qingdao Youth Island have not lost to Dalian Zhixing in any of those three games, and they have scored in every one.

Key Points:

• Qingdao Youth Island have won all 3 recent head-to-head meetings, scoring 7 and conceding 2

• Home record: 7W 10D 3L in 20 games (1.55 ppg) vs Dalian's away record: 3W 8D 9L (0.85 ppg)

• Dalian Zhixing are in strong recent form: 3W 2D 0L in last 5, won last 2, scored in all 5

• Qingdao Youth Island have drawn their last 2 matches; 4 of 5 recent games finished under 2.5 goals

• Dalian's away defence concedes 2.05 per game; Qingdao's home defence concedes 1 per game

The verdict: I see the home win as the most supported outcome. The structural advantage of Qingdao Youth Island's home record over Dalian Zhixing's away record, combined with the clean head-to-head, outweighs the visitors' recent momentum. I rate Qingdao Youth Island's chance of winning at roughly 43%, which sits above the market's implied 37.04% at 2.7. The home win at 2.7 is my pick.