Preview
PajimonRacing Club host Belgrano Cordoba on 11 October, and if you've been following the form, the picture is pretty clear. Belgrano walk in unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws, with just three goals conceded across the whole stretch. Racing, on the other hand, have dropped points in three of their last five, losing to Huracan 1–2, Atletico Tucuman 1–2 at home, and Boca Juniors 2–3 in the Copa Argentina. That's a lot of goals leaking out of the back door.
The away numbers for Belgrano are the real talking point. Over their last 20 away games, they've collected 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses at 1.6 points per game. Their defence has conceded 0.85 per game and kept 9 clean sheets in those 20 outings. Now look at Racing at home over 20 games: 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses at 1.45 points per game, but 1.25 conceded per game and only 5 clean sheets. Belgrano's away defence is the sharper unit, and that's the edge I'm seeing here.
The head-to-head gives Racing a bit of comfort. They won both recent meetings — a 1–0 at their ground in August and a 2–1 away at Belgrano in March. But those are just two games, and the older meetings (a 4–0 in January 2025, a 1–0 in July 2025, a 4–4 in May 2024) are historical record. They don't tell you where these teams are now. What they do tell you is that Racing have a history of beating Belgrano, but the current form gap is the real story, and it points the other way.
The counter-argument is fair enough. Racing have scored in every one of their last five games — 9 goals in 5 matches — and their home attack averages 1.45 goals per game over 20 fixtures. They beat Sarmiento 3–1 at home and Estudiantes 2–1 away in the last couple of weeks. If they find that same edge, they can get there. But three losses in five, two of them at home, suggests that edge is harder to find than it used to be. And Belgrano's defence has been the quiet hero of their unbeaten form.
Now, I'll be honest — I'm not a man who sits around eating vegetables. You put a good piece of meat on the coals, pour a cold one, and you watch the game. And when I watch this one, I see a team in genuine form visiting a side that's been leaking goals at home. Belgrano's last 10 tells the story: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses, 1.6 points per game, and only 6 goals conceded. Racing's last 10: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, 1 point per game, 16 goals conceded. That's a gap that's hard to bridge in one game. The market has them at 3.4, with a 29.41% implied probability, but I think the form points to a higher chance than that.
Key Points:
- Belgrano are unbeaten in 5 (2W 3D), conceding only 3 goals; Racing have lost 3 of 5
- Belgrano's away record over 20 games: 8W 8D 4L, 0.85 conceded/game, 9 clean sheets
- Racing's home record over 20 games: 8W 5D 7L, 1.25 conceded/game, 5 clean sheets
- Racing won both recent H2H meetings (1–0, 2–1) but the older meetings are historical
- Belgrano's last 10: 4W 4D 2L, 1.6 PPG; Racing's last 10: 3W 1D 6L, 1 PPG
My pick: away win for Belgrano Cordoba.