Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Racing Club at home to Belgrano Cordoba on 11 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a clear edge and I'm not afraid to say it.
Belgrano Cordoba have been absolutely solid. Two wins and three draws in their last five, no losses at all, and they've only conceded three goals in that stretch. Their last two games have been wins — a 1–0 at Talleres Cordoba and a 2–1 at home to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — and they've scored three and conceded just one in those. Over their last ten, they've lost only twice, and their away record over 20 games tells the real story: 8 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses, with 1.6 points per game and just 0.85 goals conceded per outing. Nine clean sheets in 20 away games. That's a team that shuts the door.
Now look at Racing Club. Two wins and three losses in five, and in their last ten they've only won three times. Their defence has been a bit of a sieve — 1.6 goals conceded per game in the last ten, one clean sheet in that stretch. At home over 20 games they've conceded 1.25 per game, and their last three home fixtures have been a 2–3 loss to Boca Juniors, a 3–1 win over Sarmiento Junin, and a 1–2 loss to Atletico Tucuman. They do score — 1.8 per game in the last five — but they're leaking all over the place.
The head-to-head is interesting. Racing won both recent meetings — a 1–0 at their ground in Copa Argentina back in August and a 2–1 away at Belgrano in March. But that's just two games, and the older meetings go back years and don't really tell you what's happening now. What matters is that Belgrano's form is on another level compared to Racing's.
The counter-argument is that Racing do score at home — 1.45 per game over 20 home games — and they've won both recent head-to-head meetings. Plus, Belgrano's away scoring is modest at 0.95 per game over 20 outings. So this could be a tight one where Racing's attack finds a way. But when your defence is conceding 1.6 per game and the opposition has only lost twice in ten, the numbers start to get a bit uncomfortable.
Key Points:
- Belgrano Cordoba are unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D) and have won their last two
- Racing Club have lost three of their last five and conceded 1.6 per game in their last ten
- Belgrano's away record: 8W 8D 4L over 20 games, 9 clean sheets, 0.85 conceded per game
- Racing won both recent head-to-head meetings, but that's only two games
- Belgrano's defence: 0.6 conceded per game in the last ten, 5 clean sheets in 10
The market has Belgrano's win at 3.4, which prices them at about 29%. I'd put their chance closer to 35% given the form gap and the defensive numbers. That's value, and I'm going with it. Away win — Belgrano Cordoba.