Radcliffe vs Scarborough Athletic Prediction

The force is strong with this one, but not in the way you'd expect. Radcliffe have lost their last three matches, conceding ten goals and scoring just three, and their home record over 20 games tells a tale of 10 defeats against 7 wins. The 0–3 loss to Oxford City on 12 September at their own ground was the start of a string of disappointments.

Scarborough Athletic, by contrast, have not lost in five. Their last three games — a 1–1 away to Brackley Town, a 2–2 away to Macclesfield, and a 1–1 at home to Macclesfield — are all draws, and their last five overall sit at 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses. Over 20 away games, they average 1.35 points per game and concede 1.5 per game, figures that sit comfortably ahead of Radcliffe's home numbers of 1.2 points and 2.05 conceded.

The head-to-head at this ground is telling: on 27 January, Radcliffe fell 1–4 to Scarborough Athletic. The reverse fixture, at Scarborough's ground in December, went 0–3 to Radcliffe. So each side has a win at the other's ground in the last 12 months, and the meeting at Radcliffe's ground went to the visitors.

But here is where the wise one must pause. Scarborough Athletic have drawn their last three. They have not won since the 2–0 at Dunston UTS on 19 September, and that was in the FA Cup. Radcliffe, for all their woes, did smash 5–1 past Hebburn Town at home on 8 September, and their home record does include 7 wins. The form gap is real, but the draws in Scarborough's recent run and the split head-to-head make it hard to call a winner with the confidence the price demands.

The market prices Scarborough Athletic at 1.87 for the away win, implying a 53.48% chance. My own reading of the form, the venue record and the head-to-head puts the visitors' chance of a win at roughly 53%. That is close, but the three consecutive draws in Scarborough's recent run and the split head-to-head — where Radcliffe won 3–0 at Scarborough's ground in December — keep me from crossing the line.

Key Points:

• Radcliffe have lost their last 3 games, conceding 10 and scoring 3

• Scarborough Athletic are unbeaten in 5, with 4 draws in that span

• The head-to-head at Radcliffe's ground went 1–4 to Scarborough in January

• Scarborough's last 3 games are all draws, which tempers the away-win case

• Radcliffe's home record: 7W 3D 10L over 20 games, 2.05 conceded per game

The call: No Bet.