Preview
Right, so we've got Rangers at home to ST Johnstone on 24 October, and if you've been following the form book, this one looks like it's going to be a bit of a one-sided affair. Rangers have been absolutely flying - four wins and a draw in their last five, and they've only conceded three goals across those games. They put three past Celtic at home in the League Cup on 13 September and then beat them away 1-0 on 20 September. That's not just winning, that's winning with authority.
ST Johnstone, on the other hand, have been a bit of a mixed bag. Two wins, two draws and a loss in their last five. They did grab a 1-0 win at Aberdeen on 11 October, which was a nice bit of business, but they've drawn their last game - 1-1 at home to Dundee Utd on 17 October. And going back a bit further, they lost 0-1 to Celtic at home on 9 September, which stings.
Now, the head-to-head here is worth a quick mention, but I'll be upfront - every meeting between these two sides goes back at least 21 months. The last time they met was in January 2025, and Rangers won 3-1 at home. In fact, Rangers won all five of those older meetings - 3-1, 0-1, 2-0, 2-0 and 0-3. So the history is heavily in Rangers' favour, but it's dated, and I'd rather lean on what's happening right now.
The numbers that really catch my eye are the home and away splits. Rangers at home over their last 20 games have won 13, drawn 4 and lost 3, scoring 2.55 per game. ST Johnstone away over 20 games have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 3, but they've only scored 1.6 per game and conceded just 0.6. That defensive record on the road is solid. And here's the thing that's got me leaning towards a low-scoring affair: ST Johnstone have had under 2.5 goals in 14 of their last 20 away games, and in their last five matches overall, it's been under 2.5 in four of five. Rangers' last ten games have also seen under 2.5 in six of ten.
The counter-argument? Rangers at home have had over 2.5 goals in 14 of their last 20 games, and they've been scoring at a rate of 2.55 per game on their own patch. If they're in the mood, they could put three or four past ST Johnstone. And ST Johnstone's away record - 12 wins in 20 - isn't something to write off entirely. They've got a decent away record, even if the recent form has been a bit flat.
Key Points:
- Rangers are unbeaten in their last five (4W 1D), scoring 10 and conceding 3
- ST Johnstone have won just 3 of their last 10 games (3W 4D 3L)
- ST Johnstone have had under 2.5 goals in 14 of their last 20 away games
- Rangers at home have scored 2.55 per game over 20 games, but ST Johnstone away concede only 0.6 per game
- The head-to-head is entirely historical, with Rangers winning all five recent meetings
My verdict: I'm going with under 2.5 goals. ST Johnstone's away defensive record and their recent low-scoring form make this the most compelling angle, and at 2.75 it offers a bit more value than the short Rangers win.
