Rangers vs ST Mirren Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Rangers are back at Ibrox on Monday night, hosting St Mirren in a Premiership clash that, on paper, looks a bit of a mismatch. The Gers are sitting pretty in third, while the Saints are down in ninth, but as we all know, football isn't played on paper.

First off, Rangers' home form is the foundation for this tip. They haven't lost at Ibrox in their last five, winning three and drawing two. More importantly, they've become miserly at the back, conceding just 0.4 goals per game on their own patch. Look at their recent results: a 1-0 win over a very good Motherwell side, another 1-0 against Hibernian, and a 0-0 draw with Falkirk. They know how to shut up shop and grind out results when they need to.

Now, St Mirren are a funny old side. They've got a result in them, as their 3-1 League Cup win over Celtic proves. They can score goals, especially on the road where they're averaging a whopping 2.67 per game. The problem is, they're leaking like a sieve away from home, conceding 2.33 per game. They drew 3-3 at Aberdeen and lost 3-1 at Dundee. If you give Rangers chances at Ibrox, they will punish you.

The head-to-head is interesting. Rangers have won five of the last nine meetings, but St Mirren have nicked a couple of wins and the last game finished 1-1. That might give the visitors a bit of hope, but Ibrox is a different beast. Rangers' home record against the Saints reads two wins and one loss.

When you crunch the numbers, the value screams at you. The bookies have Rangers at 1.62 to win. That's implying they've got about a 62% chance. I reckon that's short-changing them. Given their home fortress and St Mirren's dodgy away defence, I'd put their chances closer to 70%. That's a nice bit of value for your money.

St Mirren will probably have a go – that's their way – but Rangers are too organised and too strong at home. I can see another one of those gritty, professional 1-0 or 2-0 wins for the home side.

Key Points:

Rangers are unbeaten in their last five at home (W3, D2), keeping three clean sheets.

They concede just 0.4 goals per game at Ibrox.

St Mirren score plenty away (2.67 per game) but concede even more (2.33 per game).

The Saints' away defence has been breached three times by Aberdeen and Dundee recently.

• Head-to-head shows Rangers have the historical edge, especially at home.

The Simple Verdict: All the trends point one way. Rangers are solid, St Mirren are shaky on the road. The price on the home win is generous. I'm backing Rangers to win.