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Right, folks, The Big O is back and I'm eyeing another Bundesliga fixture that should have some goals in it. Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg on 16 October, and I'm looking for that big-O kind of action.
The case for goals here is strong. Rapid Vienna have been absolutely tearing it up of late — four wins in their last five, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 2 in that run. Their last four games produced 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 and 5-2, which is the kind of scoring I live for. At home, their record over 20 games shows 2.4 goals scored per game and 0.9 conceded, and 10 of those 20 home fixtures went over 2.5. Their xG numbers back it up too: 3.28 goals created per game in their last three matches with xG data, while opponents have only generated 0.86 against them.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have been in a scoring frenzy. All five of their last five games finished over 2.5 goals — 4-3, 3-3, 2-2, 4-0 and 3-2. That's 26 total goals in five matches. Away from home over 20 games, they've scored 1.55 per game and conceded 1.0, and 11 of those 20 away fixtures finished over 2.5. Their xG for stands at 1.65 per game across six matches with data.
So you've got a Rapid side averaging well over 2 goals a game at home meeting a Hartberg side that has scored in every one of their last five. The venue records point to a high-scoring expectation, and both teams' recent form screams goals.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll be honest — the head-to-head gives me pause. The three most recent meetings between these sides, all within the last 12 months, produced 0-2, 2-2 and 1-1. Two of those three were under 2.5. Rapid's defensive record at home is tight: 9 clean sheets in 20 home games, and only 2 goals conceded in their last four matches. Their xG against of 0.86 per game suggests Hartberg might struggle to find the net. And Rapid's home BTTS record is only 8 of 20, meaning in 12 of their last 20 home games at least one team failed to score.
The head-to-head is dated — those meetings are from February and April — and Rapid's form has clearly shifted since the 1-1 in February. But it does show that Hartberg can hold their own at this ground, and Rapid's defensive solidity might keep the total down. I want the goals, I really do, but I can't honestly rate the over above the level the price demands when the most recent meetings at this venue were low-scoring and Rapid's back line has been rock solid.
Key Points:
- Rapid Vienna won their last 4 games, scoring 13 and conceding 2; three of those four went over 2.5
- TSV Hartberg's last 5 games all finished over 2.5 goals (26 total goals in 5 matches)
- Recent head-to-head at Rapid's ground: 0-2 and 1-1, both under 2.5
- Rapid's home record over 20 games: 2.4 scored, 0.9 conceded per game; 10/20 over 2.5
- Hartberg away over 20 games: 1.55 scored, 1.0 conceded per game; 11/20 over 2.5
The Big O's verdict: No Bet.