Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Ravenna hosting Spezia on 18 October, and if you've got a pen and paper, you'd better start scribbling down the home and away numbers, because they tell you everything you need to know here.
Ravenna at home over their last 20 games? Fourteen wins, five draws, one loss. That's 2.35 points per game, 1.55 goals scored per game, and just 0.5 conceded per game. Eleven clean sheets out of twenty. One loss in twenty home games, folks. That's not a bad record to face.
Now look at Spezia's away numbers over 20 games: six wins, five draws, nine losses. 1.15 points per game, 1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded. Four clean sheets out of twenty. That's a world away from what Ravenna are doing at home.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play, is that Spezia are on a five-game winning run. Eleven goals scored, two conceded across those five. They've won all three of their away games in the last five — Reggiana 0–1, Pescara 1–2, Perugia 0–3. That's a team in serious form, and you can't just wave it away. Their last ten games are nine wins, one draw, no losses. 2.8 points per game. That's top-tier stuff.
But here's the thing. Form is one thing, but the home and away records over 20 games are the real test of who's who in a fixture like this. Ravenna at home have only lost once in twenty. Spezia away have lost nine times in twenty. That's a gap that's hard to bridge, even with a five-game run.
There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're flying on the venue numbers and current form. And the venue numbers say Ravenna.
The market has Spezia as the slight favourite at 2.55 (39.22% implied), with Ravenna at 2.75 (36.36%). I think that's got it a touch backwards. When you look at 14 wins from 20 home games against 6 wins from 20 away games, I'd rate Ravenna's chance of winning this at around 45%. That's above the 36.36% the market is pricing in, and that's where the value sits.
Key Points:
- Ravenna's home record: 14W 5D 1L in 20 games, 2.35 ppg, 0.5 conceded per game
- Spezia's away record: 6W 5D 9L in 20 games, 1.15 ppg, 1.6 conceded per game
- Spezia are on a five-game winning run (11 scored, 2 conceded)
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
- Market prices Spezia as slight favourites; the home and away numbers say otherwise
My pick: Ravenna home win at 2.75.