RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Right then, let's talk about the big one this weekend. RB Leipzig, sitting pretty in second, host Bayer Leverkusen, who are nipping at their heels in fourth. It's a proper top-of-the-table scrap, and the numbers make for some interesting reading.

First up, Leipzig at home. Blimey, they've been turning their gaff into a fortress. Five home games, five wins. They're not just winning, they're smashing 'em. Six goals past Frankfurt, three past Stuttgart, two past Werder Bremen. They're averaging over three goals a game at home and have only let in a measly 0.6 per match on their own patch. Their only recent wobble was a 3-1 loss away at Union Berlin, but at the Red Bull Arena, they look untouchable.

Now, Leverkusen are no pushovers. They're a solid outfit, especially on their travels with four wins from their last six away. They've got some serious scalps too, like that 1-0 win at Borussia Dortmund in the cup. Defensively, they're sound, keeping a clean sheet in half their last ten games. But here's the rub: their attack on the road ain't exactly free-scoring, managing just over a goal a game. And they had a proper off day, losing 2-0 to an Augsburg side struggling near the bottom.

When these two have met, it's been a proper ding-dong. Four wins apiece and a draw in the last nine. The last one finished 2-2. Goals are usually on the menu when they clash.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Leipzig at just over evens. Given their home form – 100% wins, scoring for fun – that looks like a bit of value to me. Leverkusen are tough, but Leipzig's firepower at home is a different beast. I can see them getting the job done.

Key Points:

RB Leipzig have a 100% win rate in their last 5 home games.

Leipzig average 3.2 goals scored and concede only 0.6 per game at home.

Bayer Leverkusen have a strong 66.67% away win rate but score just 1.17 goals per game on the road.

Head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: 4 wins each, 1 draw.

• The last meeting between these sides ended in a 2-2 draw.

In summary, while Leverkusen are a quality side, Leipzig's formidable home form is the standout story here. The value, for my money, lies with the home win.