RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg Prediction

Right then, gather round! We've got a proper Bundesliga clash on Saturday afternoon as RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg. Now, on paper, you'd expect Leipzig to be licking their lips here – they absolutely battered Augsburg 6-0 back in October, and they've never lost to this lot in nine meetings. But hold your horses, because the form book's telling a slightly different story lately.

Let's start with the hosts. Leipzig are sitting pretty in fifth, but their home form has been about as solid as a chocolate teapot recently. Just one win in their last five at the Red Bull Arena – and that was a 2-0 against Freiburg. Before that? A 2-2 draw with Dortmund, a 2-2 with Wolfsburg, a 1-2 loss to Mainz, and a proper spanking from Bayern (1-5). They're conceding 2.20 goals per game on home soil – that's not exactly championship-winning stuff, is it? Sure, they turned over Hamburg 2-1 last week away from home, but at the Red Bull Arena, the back door's been left wide open.

Now, Augsburg roll into town sitting ninth, but don't let the league table fool you – they're in better nick than Leipzig right now. Five wins in their last ten compared to Leipzig's four, and they've been picking up 1.80 points per game recently. The big story? They went to the Allianz Arena and stuck two past Bayern Munich to win 2-1 in January. If you can do it there, you can do it anywhere. They've also put three past Wolfsburg away from home recently. Yes, they got thumped 4-0 at Gladbach and lost 2-0 at Mainz, but this lot can score on the road – averaging 1.25 away goals against teams conceding over 2 per game.

Here's the rub: Leipzig's home defence is leaking like a sieve (2.20 conceded per game), while Augsburg's away defence isn't much better (2.25 conceded per game). When you look at the recent results, Leipzig's last five home games have seen 13 goals fly in, and Augsburg's last four away trips have seen 12 goals. The maths points to a goal-fest, and with Augsburg showing they can find the net against the very best, I can't see them drawing a blank here despite that 6-0 hammering earlier in the season.

Key Points:

• Leipzig have won all four home meetings with Augsburg, including a 6-0 demolition in October

• Leipzig's recent home form is poor: just 1 win in last 5 (20% win rate), conceding 2.20 goals per game

• Augsburg are in better recent form (1.80 PPG vs 1.50) and shocked Bayern Munich 2-1 away in January

• Both teams concede heavily: Leipzig 2.20 at home, Augsburg 2.25 away

• Goal expectancies suggest 3.66 total goals (Home 1.93, Away 1.73)

• Augsburg have scored in 2 of their last 4 away games, including 3 at Wolfsburg and 2 at Bayern

So, while Leipzig will fancy their chances of winning this given the history, the value isn't in the 1.42 home win price – that's too skinny for a side struggling at home. Instead, look at the goals markets. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs lately, and with neither defence looking particularly organised, I'm backing both teams to find the net. It's 1.62 for BTTS, and given the defensive records and Augsburg's newfound confidence, that looks a cracking bet.