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Match preview
SpainLa Liga
Match preview
SpainLa Liga
The home record speaks, and loudly it speaks. Real Madrid have won 16 of their last 20 home games in La Liga, with just two draws and two losses. Two and a three-quarter goals scored per game at home, one conceded. The numbers paint a picture of a team that arrives at its own ground expecting to win, and mostly delivers. A remarkable record, it is.
Sevilla, on the other hand, travel with a heavier bag. Six wins, five draws, nine losses in their last 20 away games. One and two-tenths goals scored, one and six-tenths conceded. The road is not kind to them, and the last five matches tell a similar story: two wins, one draw, two losses, with the most recent being a 3–3 draw at Levante's ground on 12 October. The current run is a single draw, and the form is mixed at best.
The head-to-head within the last 12 months is unambiguous. Real Madrid won both meetings — 2–0 at their own ground on 20 December 2025, and 1–0 at Sevilla's ground on 17 May 2026. At this fixture's venue, the record from those recent meetings is one win, no draws, no losses. The older meetings, stretching back two years, add further context but are historical record, not current form. The dates reach back that far, and they dilute what the recent picture tells us.
Real Madrid's recent run is strong. Four wins and one loss in their last five matches, with a current run of two wins. The 4–3 victory at AS Roma's ground on 14 October, four days before kickoff, showed they can score in abundance even on the road. At home, the 1–0 win over Villarreal on 10 October and the 4–1 demolition of Rayo Vallecano on 12 September bookend a period of confidence. In their last 10 matches across all venues, they have won eight, drawn none, and lost two.
The counter-argument, such as it is, rests on the fact that both recent head-to-head meetings were low-scoring affairs — 2–0 and 0–1. Sevilla did score in three of their last five matches, and the 3–3 draw at Levante showed they can find goals even on the road. In their last 10 matches, they have won four, drawn two, and lost four. There is a thread of resilience in that record, and a 3–3 draw is not a result that suggests a team without attacking intent.
But the weight of evidence — the home record, the away record, the recent head-to-head, the current form — all points in one direction. The matchup table favours Real Madrid in points per game, goals scored, goals conceded, and the frequency of failing to score, while clean sheets are level and the over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score splits are even. The wise path, it is. The numbers do not lie, they do not.
Key Points:
The home win, it is. Real Madrid take the three points.
