Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Real Salt Lake hosting San Jose Earthquakes on 15 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a bit of a story to tell.
San Jose have been absolutely flying. Three wins and two draws from their last five — not a loss in sight. They've chucked 10 goals into the net over that stretch, scoring at a clip of two a game, and only conceded six. Their last outing was a 1–1 draw at Colorado Rapids just four days ago, and before that they were 3–1 over Portland at home and 2–2 with LAFC. The man in the pub would say they're in the zone, and the numbers back that up.
Now, Real Salt Lake's home record over the last 20 games is 13 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses — that's 2.05 points per game and they're averaging 2.1 goals a game at home. That's a solid record. But here's the rub: those 20 games stretch back 12 months, and the older ones dilute what's actually happening right now. And right now? Well, it's been a bit of a nightmare. Four losses from their last five. Two of those were at home — 0–3 to Vancouver, 0–2 to New York City FC — before they finally got a 3–0 win over New England two weeks ago. Their last game was a 1–2 loss at Philadelphia just five days ago. In their last 10 games, they've won just once, drawn once, and lost eight. They've failed to score in five of those ten.
The head-to-head here is entirely historical — no meetings within the last 12 months — so we can't lean on that. What we do have is the matchup table, and it tells us Real Salt Lake's home numbers (13W 2D 5L, 2.05 ppg) sit comfortably ahead of San Jose's away numbers (9W 5D 6L, 1.6 ppg). But that's the broader picture. The current form is screaming the other way.
The counter-argument for Salt Lake is that home form does tend to hold, and that 3–0 win over New England showed they can still put a team to bed. Plus, San Jose's away record over 20 games includes 6 losses, so they're not untouchable on the road. And that 1–1 at Colorado four days ago suggests they're not quite at peak away output either.
Key Points:
- San Jose are unbeaten in their last five (3W 2D), scoring 2.0 per game and conceding 1.2
- Real Salt Lake have lost 4 of their last 5, including 2 consecutive home defeats before the New England win
- RSL's home record (13W 2D 5L in 20) is strong but spans 12 months; current form is 1W 1D 8L in 10
- The head-to-head is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months
- The market prices Real Salt Lake at 2.01 and San Jose at 4.05, but the form gap is stark
My pick is the away win for San Jose Earthquakes. The form is too one-sided to ignore, and the price at 4.05 offers value when you look at what's actually happening on the pitch.