Real Sociedad II vs Almeria Prediction

The force is strong with Almeria, you see. Five wins in a row, ten goals scored, and a single goal conceded across that run. The last five matches tell a story of a side clicking at every level — a 3–0 over Leganes on 11 October, a 2–1 against Burgos on 3 October, a 1–0 at Mallorca on 27 September, a 2–0 against Celta de Vigo II on 20 September, and a 2–0 at Cordoba on 12 September. Four clean sheets in those five. The away record over 20 games backs it up: 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses, 1.1 goals scored per game and 1.2 conceded. In the latest 10 across all grounds, 8 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 2.4 points per game, and just 0.5 conceded per game. That is a team in rhythm, and rhythm, young one, is a thing you cannot manufacture.

Now turn to the other side of the pitch. Real Sociedad II have lost their last two — a 1–4 defeat at Celta de Vigo II on 10 October and a 2–3 loss to Granada CF at home on 4 October. Four of their last five have been losses, with 11 goals conceded in that span. The home record over 20 games is 3 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses, 0.75 points per game, 1.05 scored and 1.5 conceded. In the latest 10, 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, 2.1 conceded per game. The defence is leaking, and the attack, while it did find four goals in the 4–0 over Leicester City U21 on 30 September, has been inconsistent against league opposition.

The head-to-head leans heavily toward Almeria. In the one meeting within the last 12 months — at Almeria's ground on 29 March — the visitors were beaten 5–1. Across all four recorded meetings, Almeria have won three, drawn one, and Real Sociedad II have not won. The older meetings at Real Sociedad II's ground (a 2–2 in 2025 and a 0–2 in 2022) are historical context only. The most recent meeting, however, is the one that matters most, and it was a comprehensive Almeria victory.

The counter-argument, if there is one, is that Real Sociedad II did score in four of their last five matches and their home record includes six draws — a side that can grind out a point even when the results are poor. Almeria's away record, while solid, is not dominant: 9 losses in 20 away games. And the most recent head-to-head meeting was at Almeria's ground, not here. The venue at Real Sociedad II's ground has no recent meeting on record, so we are reading the older 2–2 and 0–2 as historical context, not current form.

But the weight of evidence points one way. Almeria's current form is extraordinary by any measure, Real Sociedad II's is poor, and the matchup table shows Almeria's away side outperforming the home side on points per game, goals scored, and goals conceded. The market prices Almeria at 2.06, implying a 48.54% chance. My own reading of the form, the head-to-head, and the venue records puts Almeria's likelihood of winning closer to 55%. That is a gap worth noting, and a price worth taking.

Key Points:

• Almeria have won their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding just 1

• Real Sociedad II have lost their last 2 and 4 of their last 5, conceding 11 in that span

• The most recent head-to-head meeting (29 March) was a 5–1 Almeria win

• Almeria's away record (7W 4D 9L in 20) outperforms Real Sociedad II's home record (3W 6D 11L in 20) on points per game, goals scored, and goals conceded

• Real Sociedad II's home record includes 6 draws, but their current form offers little comfort

The wise choice, I tell you, is the away win. Almeria at 2.06 is the pick.