Preview
Value VinnyAlmeria arrive at Real Sociedad II's ground riding a five-game winning run that reads like a highlight reel. In their last five matches — spanning 12 September to 11 October 2026 — they scored 10 goals and conceded just one, with four clean sheets. Their latest 10 games tell an even starker story: 8 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 2.4 points per game, and a conceded rate of 0.5 per game. That is not a team that stumbles; that is a team that has found a gear and refuses to shift out of it.
Real Sociedad II are heading in the opposite direction. Their last five matches (19 September to 10 October 2026) produced 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. They lost 1–4 to Celta de Vigo II just seven days before this kickoff and 2–3 to Granada CF at home on 4 October. Their home record over 20 games is 3 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses — 0.75 points per game — and they have conceded 1.5 goals per game at home. The latest 10 comparison makes the gap even more stark: Almeria's 2.4 points per game and 0.5 conceded per game sit well above Real Sociedad II's 1.1 and 2.1. When the numbers line up this cleanly, the value is hard to ignore.
The head-to-head adds weight. In the only meeting within the last 12 months — at Almeria's ground on 29 March 2026 — Almeria won 5–1. Across all four recorded meetings at both venues, Real Sociedad II have not won; the tally is 3 Almeria wins and 1 draw. The older meetings at this specific ground (a 2–2 draw in August 2025 and a 0–2 Almeria win in May 2022) are historical and do not carry the same weight, but they do show that Real Sociedad II have never beaten Almeria here. The dates on those older games stretch back four years, so I am leaning on the recent form and the one current-season meeting rather than treating the full record as a trend.
The counter-argument is that Real Sociedad II are at home, and the recent head-to-head at this ground is essentially blank — there have been no meetings here in the last 12 months. Almeria's away record over 20 games is solid (7W 4D 9L, 1.25 points per game) but not dominant, and football does not always reward the better side on the day. Real Sociedad II did score 4 goals in a 4–0 win over Leicester City U21 in a Premier League International Cup match on 30 September, which shows they can find the net. But that was a different competition and a different standard of opposition, and it does not change the fact that they have lost their last two matches.
Key Points:
- Almeria have won their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 1
- Real Sociedad II have lost 4 of their last 5, conceding 11 in that span
- Almeria's away record (7W in 20) outperforms Real Sociedad II's home record (3W in 20) on points per game
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (29 March 2026) ended 5–1 to Almeria
- Real Sociedad II have never beaten Almeria in the four recorded meetings at both venues
My read on this one is that Almeria's form, defensive solidity and head-to-head dominance put them well ahead of the market's 48.54% price on the away win. I rate Almeria's chance of winning at roughly 62%, which sits comfortably above the 2.06 price. The numbers do not lie — and in this case, they point firmly in Almeria's direction. The bet is the away win.