Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Real Sociedad II hosting Almeria on 17 October in the Segunda División, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Almeria are flying. Five wins in a row, ten goals scored, one conceded. That's not a coincidence, that's a team clicking on all cylinders. They beat Leganes 3-0 at home on 11 October, took down Burgos 2-1 on 3 October, and before that they went to Mallorca's ground and came away with a 1-0. Two of those five were on the road, and both were clean-sheet wins. Their away record over 20 games tells the story too: 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses, with 1.2 goals conceded per game. In their last ten across all grounds, they've won 8, drawn 0, lost 2, and conceded just half a goal a game. That's a side that's hard to break down.
Now, Real Sociedad II are having a rough patch. Four losses in their last five, and the last two have been defeats. They lost 2-3 to Granada at home on 4 October and then went out to Celta de Vigo II and got thumped 4-1 on 10 October. In that two-game run they scored 3 and conceded 7. Their home record over 20 games is 3 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses — that's 0.75 points a game, and they're conceding 1.5 per game at home. In their last ten overall, they've conceded 2.1 a game. That's a lot of goals leaking out.
The head-to-head leans Almeria's way, though I'll be upfront — most of it's historical. Three of the four meetings are historical, with two dating back four years or more. The one that matters, the recent meeting within the last 12 months, was on 29 March at Almeria's ground, and Almeria won 5-1. So the most recent time these two met, it wasn't close.
The counter-argument? Real Sociedad II did score in four of their last five games, and they pulled off a 4-0 win against Leicester City U21 in a different competition on 30 September. They're not a team that sits back and doesn't create. And Almeria's five-game run, while impressive, includes three home games. Two of their away wins in that stretch were 1-0 and 2-0 — tight affairs. So there's a chance Real Sociedad II's home ground, even if the record is poor, could produce a bit more resistance than the numbers suggest.
But when you stack it all up — Almeria's form is exceptional, their away record is solid, Real Sociedad II's home record is poor and their recent form is shaky, and the head-to-head points Almeria's way — the balance tips firmly to the visitors.
Key Points:
- Almeria have won their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding just 1
- Real Sociedad II have lost their last 2, conceding 7 in those games
- Almeria's away record: 7W 4D 9L in 20 games; Real Sociedad II's home record: 3W 6D 11L
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (29 March) was a 5-1 Almeria win
- Almeria's last 10: 8W 0D 2L, conceding 0.5 per game
I'm going with the Almeria away win at 2.06.