Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be upfront – this one's got me reaching for the cold one before the whistle even blows. Almeria are on a run that would make any braai master in the veld do a double-take: five wins in a row, 10 goals scored, and a single goal conceded across those five matches. They hammered Leganes 3–0 at home on 11 October, beat Burgos 2–1 on 3 October, and before that they were winning away at Mallorca 1–0 and Cordoba 2–0. That's not luck, that's a team that's found its groove.
Now flip the script. Real Sociedad II have lost their last two – 1–4 at Celta de Vigo II on 10 October and 2–3 to Granada at home on 4 October. In their last five matches they've managed one win (a 4–0 against Leicester City U21 in a cup game) and four losses, conceding 11 goals in the process. At home over 20 games, their record reads 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses, with 1.5 goals conceded per game. That's a leaky bucket, and I've seen plenty of those in the backyards of the Eastern Cape.
The head-to-head doesn't help the hosts either. In the only meeting within the last 12 months, Almeria hosted Real Sociedad II and won 5–1 back in March. Across all four meetings on record, Real Sociedad II have not won once – 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, conceding 12 to 4. The older meetings at Real Sociedad II's ground (a 2–2 draw in 2025 and a 0–2 loss in 2022) are historical, but even those don't show the hosts having a good day.
The matchup tables make it clear. Over 20 away games, Almeria have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses at 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 per game. Real Sociedad II at home sit at 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses, 0.75 points per game, scoring 1.05 and conceding 1.5. On most lines, Almeria's away numbers are the better ones. And in the latest 10 across all venues, the gap is even starker: Almeria 8W 0D 2L at 2.4 points per game versus Real Sociedad II 3W 2D 5L at 1.1.
The counter-argument? Real Sociedad II did score 4 in that Leicester City U21 game, and their last five matches have seen 4 out of 5 go over 2.5 goals. There's a slim chance they find a spark at home and the pressure of a winless run produces a reaction. But four losses in five, two of them at home, and a 5–1 defeat to this very opponent six months ago? I'm not holding my breath.
Key Points:
- Almeria have won their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding just 1
- Real Sociedad II have lost their last 2 and sit at 3W 6D 11L at home over 20 games
- Almeria won the only recent head-to-head meeting 5–1 in March
- Almeria's away record (7W 4D 9L) outperforms Real Sociedad II's home record (3W 6D 11L) on most metrics
- Almeria's latest 10: 8W 0D 2L, 0.5 goals conceded per game
My pick: Almeria away win at 2.06.