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Real Sociedad II host Almeria at their ground on 17 October in the Segunda División, and I have to be honest with you all: this one's a tough sell for the little guy. I always root for the underdog, always sniff around for that hidden value in the overlooked, but sometimes the numbers just don't give the pup a fair fight.
Real Sociedad II have been having a rough stretch. Four of their last five matches ended in defeat, and their current run sees them losing their last two games, scoring just 3 and conceding 7 in that span. At home, their record over 20 games is 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses, with 1.05 goals scored per game and 1.5 conceded. That's a tough environment to build confidence in. The 4–0 win over Leicester City U21 on 30 September was a bright spot, but it came in a different competition, and the two league matches either side of it — a 2–3 loss to Granada at home on 4 October and a 1–4 defeat at Celta de Vigo II on 10 October — tell a less encouraging story. Two red cards in the 1–3 loss at Ceuta on 26 September also left them vulnerable.
Almeria, by contrast, are flying. Five wins from their last five, scoring 10 and conceding just 1. They beat Leganes 3–0 at home on 11 October, edged Burgos 2–1 on 3 October, and picked up 1–0 wins away at Mallorca and Cordoba. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. In their latest 10 matches across all venues, they've won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2, scoring 20 and conceding just 5. That's a side in genuine rhythm.
The head-to-head leans heavily Almeria's way. In the one meeting within the last 12 months, Almeria won 5–1 at their own ground on 29 March. The older meetings — a 2–2 draw and a 0–2 Almeria win at Real Sociedad II's ground, plus a 3–1 Almeria win at their own — are historical, but they paint a picture of a fixture where the visitors have generally had the edge. Across all four meetings, Real Sociedad II have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3, scoring 4 and conceding 12.
Now, is there any underdog angle here? Real Sociedad II did score 8 goals in their last five, and their home record does include 6 draws, which means the visitors haven't always found it easy to win here. The matchup table shows Almeria's away record is better on points per game (1.25 to 0.75) and conceded per game (1.2 to 1.5), but the gap isn't as wide as the recent form might suggest. Still, I have to be honest: my gut says Real Sociedad II winning here is a stretch. The market prices them at 23.81%, and I'd put their true chance a touch below that. The draw at 3.73 is tempting for a little-guy fan, but with Almeria scoring in every one of their last five and Real Sociedad II conceding 2.2 per game recently, I can't rate the draw high enough to feel comfortable. And I simply won't back the favourite — that's not who I am.
Key Points:
- Real Sociedad II have lost 4 of their last 5 and are on a 2-game losing run
- Almeria are unbeaten in 5, scoring 10 and conceding 1
- Almeria's away record (7W 4D 9L in 20) outperforms Real Sociedad II's home record (3W 6D 11L in 20)
- The recent head-to-head saw Almeria win 5–1; older meetings are historical
- Real Sociedad II's xG against in 2 recent games was 2.79 per game, showing defensive vulnerability
No Bet. The available prices on the underdog side don't offer enough value for me to pull the trigger, and I'd rather sit this one out than back a side I don't genuinely believe in. Sometimes the little puppy just needs to lick its wounds and wait for the next one. 🐾