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Right, folks, gather round. Red Bull Salzburg are at home on 18 October to face SCR Altach, and I have to admit, the recent head-to-head has me doing a little happy dance for the underdogs. In the last three meetings between these two, Salzburg have not won at their own ground. Altach came in and won 1–0 in March's Cup tie, and the two meetings before that were 2–2 and 1–1 draws. Three meetings, no home win for the hosts. That is a thread worth pulling on.
Salzburg's form in the last five games is, well, let's be gentle, a bit wobbly. They lost 0–4 to AC Milan at home on 15 October, just three days before this fixture, and lost 1–2 to FC BW Linz in a friendly on 2 October. Across their last five across all venues, the tally is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, 1.4 points per game, 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Now, they did beat Sturm Graz 3–0 on 20 September and won 1–0 away at Levski Sofia on 17 September, so the quality is still there. But the 0–4 and the 1–2 have left a mark.
Now, SCR Altach. I love a team that scores. Their last five gives 2 wins and 3 losses, sure, but the scoring line is 11 goals in 5 games, 2.2 per game. That 7–0 cup win over Bischofshofen on 4 September was a thing, and the 3–0 home win over Wolfsberger AC on 11 October kept the momentum going. The away record, though, is where the underdog story gets a bit more complicated. Over 20 away games, Altach have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 10, averaging 1 point per game, scoring 1.15 and conceding 1.5. And their last two away outings ended 0–2 at Austria Lustenau and 0–3 at Lask Linz, with Altach failing to score in both. So the scoring at home is lovely, but on the road the goals have dried up.
The counter-case for Salzburg is the one I have to be honest about. Their latest 10 across all venues shows 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses at 2 points per game, scoring 2.1 per game and conceding just 0.9. At home over 20 games, they average 1.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. And the full head-to-head aggregate across 34 meetings spanning 11 years shows Salzburg winning 22, drawing 7 and losing 5, scoring 2.18 per game and conceding 0.79. That is a long-term dominance that three recent meetings have not erased. I am rooting for Altach, but I cannot pretend the numbers do not lean heavily towards the home side.
The xG numbers add a little texture. Salzburg's xG against in their last three games with data averages 2.05 per game, which is a worrying defensive figure, while Altach's xG for averages 1.34 per game across six games. Altach's xG against sits at 1.35 per game, suggesting they are not being overwhelmed by chance.
Key Points:
- In the last three H2H meetings, Salzburg have not won at their own ground (0–1 and 2–2 at home; 1–1 at Altach's).
- Salzburg's last five: 2W 1D 2L, including a 0–4 home loss to AC Milan three days before kickoff.
- Altach scored 11 goals in their last five games (2.2 per game) but lost both of their last two away fixtures without scoring.
- Altach's 20-game away record: 5W 5D 10L, 1 point per game.
- The full 34-game H2H aggregate favours Salzburg heavily (22W 7D 5L), but the last three meetings have been competitive.
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