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Red Bull Salzburg host SCR Altach on 18 October in the Bundesliga, and on the numbers this looks like a comfortable afternoon for the home side. But football has a way of throwing a spanner in the works, and there are a couple of wrinkles worth a look before you get too comfy in your seat.
Salzburg's underlying numbers tell a strong story. Over their latest 10 games across all venues, they've won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2, averaging 2 points per game and scoring 2.1 per match while conceding just 0.9. At home over 20 games, the record is 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses, with 1.55 goals scored per game. That's a solid home record, and it's a clear step up from what Altach bring to the table on the road.
Altach's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses, averaging 1 point per game and scoring 1.15 per match while conceding 1.5. Their latest 10 across all venues is 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses. So the numbers say Salzburg are the stronger side, and by a comfortable margin. The gap in points per game, goals scored and goals conceded all point the same way.
The head-to-head at this venue is a small number of games, but it's worth a mention. In the two recent meetings at Salzburg's ground, the home side have not won — a 0-1 loss in the Cup in March and a 2-2 draw in October last year. The reverse fixture at Altach's ground was a 1-1. So the last three meetings between these two have produced no Salzburg win. That's only two meetings at this ground, and the broader head-to-head over 34 meetings spanning 11 years shows Salzburg winning 22 of those, but the recent pattern at this specific ground is a small yellow flag.
The main concern for a Salzburg win is the 0-4 defeat to AC Milan on 15 October, just three days before this fixture. That was a Europa League game against a European club, so it's not a fair read on how they perform against Bundesliga-level opposition at home. The 0-0 draw at Grazer AK on 10 October and the 1-2 friendly loss to FC BW Linz on 2 October add to a recent stretch that looks a touch soft, but the 3-0 win over Sturm Graz on 20 September and the 1-0 away win at Levski Sofia on 17 September show the quality is still there.
Altach, for their part, came in hot with a 3-0 home win over Wolfsberger AC on 11 October, but their away form is a real concern. They lost 0-2 at Austria Lustenau on 19 September and 0-3 at Lask Linz on 29 August, and their away record over 20 games has them winning just 5 of those 20. The 7-0 cup win over Bischofshofen on 4 September was a nice one, but it was at home and in a cup tie.
Key Points:
- Salzburg's latest 10: 6W 2D 2L, 2 PPG, 2.1 scored per game, 0.9 conceded per game
- Altach's away record over 20 games: 5W 5D 10L, 1 PPG, 1.15 scored per game
- Recent H2H at this venue: 0W 1D 1L in 2 meetings (0-1, 2-2)
- Salzburg's 0-4 loss to AC Milan was in the Europa League
- Altach's last two away losses were 0-2 and 0-3
The numbers overwhelmingly point to Salzburg, but the 0-4 to AC Milan three days ago and the fact they haven't beaten Altach at this ground in two recent meetings keep me just shy of the comfort level I'd need to back the home side at 1.42. The available prices don't offer value at my honest confidence level, so I'm sitting this one out. No bet.