Renate vs Giana Erminio Prediction

There's something quietly endearing about two teams that simply cannot find a winner. Renate and Giana Erminio meet at Renate's ground on 11 October in Serie C Girone A, and the most striking fact about this fixture is that neither side has won a single game in their last ten matches. Renate's last ten: 0W 4D 6L. Giana Erminio's last ten: 0W 5D 5L. Together, they've drawn 9 of their last 20 games.

Giana Erminio arrive on a four-game drawing run. They levelled with Treviso 0–0 on 4 October, PRO Vercelli 1–1 on 26 September, Folgore Caratese 1–1 on 20 September, and Trento 2–2 on 17 September. Their only loss in that stretch was a 0–1 defeat at Lecco on 13 September. Over those last five matches, they've scored 4 and conceded 5, with four of the five ending in a draw.

Renate have drawn 3 of their last 5 and lost 2. Their most recent outing was a 1–1 at Ospitaletto on 3 October, and before that they lost 0–1 at home to Treviso on 27 September and 1–2 away at Arzignano Valchiampo on 20 September. Their home record over 20 games is 9W 5D 6L at 1.6 points per game, scoring 1.25 per game and conceding 1.0. Giana Erminio's away record over 20 games is 6W 4D 10L at 1.1 points per game, scoring 1.0 per game and conceding 1.4.

The head-to-head is thin on recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 10 January 2026 at Giana Erminio's ground, where Renate won 1–0. At Renate's ground, there have been no recent meetings. The older meetings — stretching back to 2024 — show a mix: Renate won 1–0 at home in September 2024, Giana Erminio won 2–1 at their ground in January 2025, and there was a 1–1 at Renate in August 2025. These are historical and don't tell us much about the current shape of either team.

The case for Giana Erminio is the drawing run and the fact that both teams are in remarkably similar form. Neither has won in ten games. Both score 0.9 per game in their last ten. Giana Erminio's away record does include 6 wins in 20 games, and the only recent head-to-head was at their ground, not at Renate's. But the counter-argument is hard to ignore: Renate's home record is 9W 5D 6L, their home attack scores 1.25 per game compared to Giana Erminio's 1.0 away, and their home defence concedes 1.0 per game compared to Giana Erminio's 1.4 away. The only recent meeting between these two sides went to Renate.

As the little puppy in this fixture, Giana Erminio need a win that the numbers don't really support. They haven't won in ten games, they lose half their away matches, and the one recent head-to-head went the other way. I'd put their chances of winning at around 22 to 24 percent, which sits below the market's 28.57 percent view. The draw is tempting given the drawing runs, but it's the second-most-likely outcome, not the underdog I look for. And I simply don't back the favourite.

Key Points:

• Neither Renate nor Giana Erminio has won in their last 10 matches

• Giana Erminio are on a 4-game drawing run (scored 4, conceded 4)

• Renate's home record: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games, 1.25 scored per game

• Giana Erminio's away record: 6W 4D 10L in 20 games, 1.4 conceded per game

• Only 1 recent head-to-head meeting (Renate won 1–0 away in January 2026)

No Bet. Giana Erminio's win probability sits below what the price offers, and the draw, while tempting, isn't the underdog I back.