Rennes vs Auxerre: Home Record Tells the Story

Right, so we've got Rennes hosting Auxerre on 11 October in Ligue 1, and I'm going to walk you through what the numbers are telling us. No politics, no nonsense — just football. The strongest case here is for the home side. Rennes have won 11 of their last 20 home games, with 3 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.8 points per game and scoring 1.65 a game. That's a solid record, and it's the kind of home base where you can sit down with a cold one and feel comfortable. They beat Marseille 1–0 at home on 11 September, and in the head-to-head at this ground, the only recent meeting was a 2–2 draw back in October 2025. The other recent meeting, at Auxerre's ground in February, saw Rennes win 3–0. Now, the counter-argument is that Rennes have lost their last two games — 0–1 at Laval and 0–4 at Lyon — and they've scored zero in both. That's a bit worrying, like when your braai's not quite right and the meat's a bit dry. But both of those were on the road. At home, the picture is different. Auxerre, on the other hand, are on a three-game winning run, scoring 7 and conceding 4 in those games. They beat Clermont 4–3 in a friendly on 2 October, beat Brest 2–1 on 20 September, and beat Nice 1–0 on 12 September. That's impressive, and I respect it. But here's the thing: all three of those wins were at home. Their away record over 20 games is 3 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses — 0.8 points per game, scoring just 1 goal a game. That's a team that struggles on the road, and it's not a secret. The head-to-head over the last 12 months tells the story: Rennes won 3–0 away and drew 2–2 at home. The older meetings go back to 2023 and are historical record only, so I won't lean on those. Key Points: - Rennes have won 11 of 20 home games, averaging 1.65 goals per game at home - Auxerre's away record is 3W 7D 10L in 20 games, scoring 1 per game - Rennes lost their last two games (0–1, 0–4) but both were away - Auxerre are on a 3-game winning run but all 3 of those were at home - The only recent H2H at this venue was a 2–2 draw Verdict: No Bet. The home win is the most likely outcome on the evidence, but at 1.48 the price doesn't offer enough value against what the numbers actually support.