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Match preview
Match preview
Right, so we've got Richmond Kickers hosting Corpus Christi on 17 October in USL League One, and I'm telling you, this one's got a proper meaty angle if you look at the right numbers. What do you mean no meat? There's plenty of meat in this fixture, braai-style.
Richmond's home record over their last 20 games at home is 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, scoring 1.3 per game and conceding 1.4. Now look at Corpus Christi's away record over 20 games: 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses, scoring 0.85 per game and conceding 1.7. Richmond win 40% of their home games while Corpus Christi only win 15% on the road. Richmond score more, concede less, and the points per game tells the story — 1.4 to 0.8. That's the structural edge, and it's not small.
Now I'll be honest — Richmond's last five has been a bit of a struggle. They've won just one of those five, and they've lost their last two, conceding 5 goals in those two. But that's five games. The 20-game home record is the real signal here, and that says Richmond are a team that gets results at home. One win in five doesn't erase eight wins in twenty at the same ground.
Corpus Christi, on the other hand, have lost their last three, scoring just 1 and conceding 7. Their last five is 2 wins and 3 losses, and those two wins came against Boise at home and Greenville Triumph away. The away record over 20 games is their weakest surface — 3 wins in 20, and they've failed to score in 8 of those 20. That's a team that struggles on the road, and it's not just the last three games telling that story.
The head-to-head is only one meeting, back in June at Corpus Christi's ground, where they won 1-0. That's dated, and it was at their end, so I'm not reading too much into it. At Richmond's ground, there's no history between these two sides.
The counter-argument is real: Richmond's recent form is poor, and Corpus Christi's last 10 overall shows 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, which is better than Richmond's 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses. So if you're looking at the last ten games across all venues, Corpus Christi are in slightly better shape. But I'm not buying that when you look at the specific home/away split — Richmond at home is a different team to Richmond on the road, and Corpus Christi away is their worst surface. The 20-game home/away records are the most relevant evidence for this fixture, and they point firmly to Richmond.
Key Points:
My verdict: Richmond Kickers home win.
BTTS No
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