Preview
Umery UnderdogThere's a little puppy in this fixture, and I'm rooting for them. Austria Vienna are the underdog here, priced at 2.8 against Ried's 2.36, and the football evidence gives them a genuine shot at stealing three points at Ried's ground.
The head-to-head is the most telling story. The only meeting within the last 12 months was in March at Ried's ground, and Austria Vienna won 2–0. Looking further back, Austria Vienna have won 21 of 34 overall meetings, with scores like 3–2, 3–0, 4–1 and 1–3 all in their favour. At Ried's ground specifically, the recent meeting ended 0–2, and the older record at this venue also saw Ried lose 1–3. Austria Vienna have a clear history of coming here and getting a result.
Their away form over the last 20 games is solid: 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses, with 2.1 goals scored per game. In their last five matches they've netted 16 goals while conceding just 6, including a 6–1 away win at Admira Wacker and a 6–0 cup victory over Traiskirchen. That's a side that travels well and scores in bunches on the road. The 0–2 home loss to Sturm Graz seven days ago is a blemish, but it was at their own ground, and their away scoring record tells a different story.
Now, the counter-argument, and it's a fair one. Ried have been in fine form, going unbeaten in their last five matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, 15 goals scored and only 7 conceded. At home over 20 games they sit at 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, scoring 1.9 per game. Their 4–1 home win over Wolfsberger AC and the 1–1 draw with Red Bull Salzburg show a confident side at home. Their 2–1 away win at WSG Wattens just seven days ago keeps the momentum going. Ried are not a team to underestimate, and their BTTS record of 9 out of 10 in the last ten games means they will almost certainly find the net.
But here's the thing: Ried's form, while impressive, is built on a mix of cup ties and friendlies alongside league matches, and their home record over 20 games includes 4 losses. Austria Vienna's away record has 11 wins in 20, and their scoring output on the road has been exceptional. The market is giving Ried a 42.37% implied probability, but I think the underdog here has a better chance than that 35.71% figure suggests. My own read puts Austria Vienna's win probability at around 38%, which edges out the market's view and gives us a small but real value.
Key Points:
- Austria Vienna won the only recent meeting at Ried's ground 2–0 in March and hold 21 wins from 34 overall head-to-head meetings
- Austria Vienna's away record: 11W 2D 7L in 20 games, 2.1 goals scored per game
- Ried are unbeaten in their last five (3W 2D), scoring 15 and conceding 7
- Ried's home record: 10W 6D 4L in 20 games, 1.9 goals per game
- Austria Vienna scored 16 in their last five but lost 0–2 to Sturm Graz seven days ago
So there it is, folks — I'm backing the little puppy. Austria Vienna away win at 2.8 is my pick, and I'd love to see them come away with the spoils.