Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this Bundesliga clash. Ried at home against SCR Altach – it's a proper mid-table scrap, innit? Both sides are separated by just two points, so there's plenty to play for. But forget the table for a second, let's talk about what's actually been happening on the pitch.
Ried have been turning their gaff into a bit of a fortress lately. In their last five at home, they've won three, drawn one, and only lost one. More importantly, they've been tighter than a drum at the back, conceding just 0.6 goals a game on their own patch. Recent results tell the story: a 1-0 win over Wolfsberger AC, a 2-1 victory against bottom side FC BW Linz, and a 2-0 win over WSG Wattens. They even went away and nicked a 2-1 win at Rapid Vienna last time out. That's proper form, that is.
Now, SCR Altach are a funny old side. They don't lose many, but blimey, they draw a lot – five of their last ten have ended all square. They've become the kings of the point, holding the mighty Red Bull Salzburg twice (2-2 away and 1-1 at home). But when they travel, wins are like gold dust. Only one win in their last five on the road, and that was a cracking 3-0 result at WSG Wattens. Problem is, they followed that up with a 1-0 loss at Lask Linz and a 3-1 defeat at Grazer AK before that. They can score away (1.4 per game) but they let 'em in just as often.
The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Ried fan. Altach have won four of the last nine meetings, with Ried only managing two wins. The last game back in August was a 1-0 win for Altach. But here's the thing – that was months ago, and Ried look a different beast at home now.
So, what's the betting play? The bookies have Ried at 2.25 to win. Now, if you fancy a bit of maths, that means they think Ried have about a 44% chance. But looking at their 60% home win rate in recent games and Altach's 20% away win rate, I reckon Ried's chances are closer to 50-55%. That makes the 2.25 look like a bit of value, doesn't it?
The Both Teams to Score market is a coin flip at 1.95. Ried keep clean sheets 40% of the time at home, and Altach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games. But with Ried's defence so solid lately, I'm leaning towards them possibly shutting the door.
Key Points:
Ried are strong at home: 60% win rate in last 5, conceding only 0.6 goals per game.
Altach are draw specialists: 5 draws in their last 10 matches.
Altach struggle for away wins: Only 20% win rate on their travels.
Head-to-head favours Altach (4 wins to Ried's 2), but the last meeting was back in August.
Ried's recent wins include victories over Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC.
Altach's notable results are draws with Red Bull Salzburg.
All in all, the value shout for me is backing Ried to get the job done at home. They're in better nick, their defence is solid, and the price is right. Let's go for the home win.
