Ried vs WSG Wattens Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a flutter on the Austrian Bundesliga this Saturday afternoon? We've got Ried hosting WSG Wattens in what looks like a proper mid-table dust-up, but I'm seeing a bit of value that the bookies might have missed.

Ried are sitting ninth in the table with 28 points, and while their home record looks decent on paper – winning half their last six at home and only conceding 0.67 goals per game there – the recent form tells a different story. They've lost their last two league matches, including a worrying 2-1 defeat at Grazer AK who are down in 11th. Before that, they got turned over 2-0 by Austria Vienna. That's three losses in their last five Bundesliga outings, and the trend lines are pointing south for goals and points.

Now look at WSG Wattens. They're three points and two places above Ried in seventh, and they come into this one with a spring in their step. They've won four of their last ten, including a cracking 1-0 win against league leaders Sturm Graz last month and a comfortable 2-0 victory over that same Grazer AK side who just beat Ried. Away from home, they're dangerous customers – scoring two goals per game on their travels, which is better than anyone in the bottom half.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading too. Wattens have the edge with three wins to Ried's one in their last seven meetings, and they held Ried to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture just a few weeks back. Ried have only won one of three home games against Wattens historically.

Key Points:

• Ried have lost their last two league games, including a shock 2-1 defeat to 11th-placed Grazer AK

• Wattens beat league leaders Sturm Graz 1-0 recently and are on an upward points trend

• Wattens score 2.00 goals per game away from home compared to Ried's 1.67 at home

• The 4.00 odds on an away win look generous given Wattens' 40% away win rate and superior recent form

• Ried's form is declining with a negative points trend over recent matches

Summary:

The bookies have Ried as favourites at 1.95, but that looks short to me given their recent struggles. Wattens at 4.00 is the value shout – they're in better nick, they've already taken points off Ried this season, and they've shown they can beat the big boys. Get on the away win.