Some betting details are unavailable for this preview.
Right, so we've got Rio Ave welcoming Nacional to their ground for a Primeira Liga clash, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a story.
Nacional have been in absolute bits. Five games, five losses, zero points. They've copped 13 goals and managed just 3 in return over that stretch. The most recent was a 0–4 thrashing at home to Famalicao on 19 September, where they even had a man sent off in the 77th minute. Before that, they lost 1–3 to Alverca at home, 2–0 to Sporting CP away, 2–3 to Estrela at home, and 1–0 to Vitória SC away. That's a run that's got the whole club looking a bit lost, and they've not kept a clean sheet in any of those five.
Now, Rio Ave aren't exactly flying either. Their last five has been 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, and they've conceded 12 goals in that span. The 0–4 loss to Sporting CP at home on 28 August and the 0–4 to Santa Clara away on 6 September were ugly. But they did pick up a 3–3 draw with Estrela at home on 14 September and a 2–0 win away at Estoril on 22 August, so there's a flicker of life in there.
The home record gives Rio Ave a bit of a cushion. Over 20 home games, they've managed 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses, averaging 1.05 points per game and scoring 1.2 a game. Nacional's away record over 20 games is 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses, at 0.6 points per game, scoring just 0.9. So on the numbers, the home side have the edge in wins, points and goals scored.
The head-to-head at this venue is a bit thin. There's no recent meeting at Rio Ave's ground within the last 12 months. The one recent meeting was at Nacional's ground back in January, where they won 4–0. Going further back, the three older meetings at Rio Ave's ground were 1–1, 2–1 and 1–1 — all low-scoring affairs. So the older meetings at this ground were all low-scoring affairs.
The counter-argument is straightforward: Rio Ave's recent form is patchy. They've failed to score in 3 of their last 5, their xG for has been just 0.48 per game over the last five matches with data, and they've conceded 2.4 per game. Nacional's away defence, while poor, has conceded 1.65 per game over 20 away games, which is a touch better than Rio Ave's home concession rate of 1.8. And that 4–0 head-to-head win at Nacional's ground eight months ago showed they can be dangerous.
Key Points:
- Nacional have lost their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 13, with no clean sheets
- Rio Ave's home record (5W 6D 9L in 20) edges out Nacional's away record (2W 6D 12L in 20)
- The head-to-head at Rio Ave's ground is limited; three older meetings all finished 1–1 or 2–1
- Both teams have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Over 2.5 goals has hit in 3 of Rio Ave's last 5 and 3 of Nacional's last 5
With the available prices not being usable for a recommendation on this one, I'm sitting this one out. no bet.