Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction

Rizespor host Fenerbahçe on 10 October in the Süper Lig, and if you've got a pen and a spreadsheet, the numbers are singing a pretty clear tune.

Fenerbahçe's away record over their last 20 games is the headline figure here: 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, averaging 2.05 points per game. They've kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 away outings and conceded just 0.8 goals per game. Their xG numbers back it up — 2.71 expected goals created per game while conceding just 0.84. In their last two matches they've scored 10 and conceded nothing, including an 8-0 demolition of Eyüpspor at home on 20 September and a 2-0 away win at Turan on 3 October. That's a side in full flight.

Rizespor, on the other hand, have been a bit of a mixed bag. Their last five games produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. Both recent home games have ended in defeat — 0-1 to Alanyaspor on 7 September and 0-2 to Samsunspor on 22 August. Their home record over 20 games is 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, which isn't terrible, but the last two at home have been poor and the form is wobbly.

The head-to-head at this venue in the recent period tells its own tale. On 23 November 2025, Fenerbahçe came here and won 5-2. The older meetings at Rizespor's ground (0-5, 1-3) are historical, but the recent one is fresh and points the same direction.

Now, the counter-argument. Rizespor have won 10 of their last 20 home games, so they're not a team that folds at home. Fenerbahçe's most recent competitive away outing was a 0-0 draw at Gaziantep FK on 14 September, and the "won last two" run includes a friendly and a game against a very weak opponent. Rizespor's home games also see both teams score in 12 of 20, which keeps the door open for a goal or two on the other end.

Key Points:

• Fenerbahçe away: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 0.8 conceded per game, 10 clean sheets

• Rizespor lost both recent home games (0-1 Alanyaspor, 0-2 Samsunspor)

• H2H at this venue (recent): Fenerbahçe won 5-2 in November 2025

• Fenerbahçe xG: 2.71 for, 0.84 against; Rizespor xG: 1.3 for, 1.3 against

• Rizespor home games see over 2.5 in 12 of 20; Fenerbahçe away sees it in 11 of 20

The market prices Fenerbahçe's win at 1.75, implying about 57%. I'd put their chance at roughly 59%, which is close but I don't think it's strong enough to back the win outright. However, the goal count is where the value sits. With Fenerbahçe averaging 2.71 xG per game and Rizespor creating 1.3, the combined scoring potential is well above 2.5. The H2H at this venue produced 7 goals, and 21 of the last 24 meetings between these sides have seen over 2.5. I rate the over at around 63%, which sits above the 58.82% the market implies.

My pick: over 2.5 goals.