Rizespor vs Kayserispor Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Turkish Super Lig clash between Rizespor and Kayserispor. It's a proper bottom-half battle, with the home side sitting 11th on 14 points while the visitors are languishing in 17th with just 9 points to their name.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Rizespor have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde side lately. They've been banging in the goals away from home - scoring 2.4 per game on their travels - but have been proper shocking at home recently, winning just 20% of their last 5 home matches. They did put five past Antalyaspor in that 5-2 away win, but at home they've been struggling to find the net with only 1 goal per game.

Kayserispor, on the other hand, are just plain bad away from home. Zero wins in their last 4 away trips, and they're leaking goals like a sieve - 2.75 per game on the road! They did manage a 3-2 home win against Kasimpasa recently, but away from home they've been getting absolutely spanked. That 4-0 hammering at Trabzonspor and 4-2 loss at Fenerbahce tells you all you need to know about their defensive solidity on their travels.

But here's the stat that catches the eye - Rizespor have a perfect home record against these lot. Five wins from five meetings at home. That's some proper dominance right there. However, recent form suggests that record might be under threat.

Both teams seem to have a thing for goals at both ends. Rizespor have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games, while Kayserispor aren't far behind at 60%. Given how leaky the visitors are away from home and Rizespor's tendency to score, we could be in for a bit of a goal fest.

The bookies have Rizespor as favourites at 1.85, which seems about right given their league position and that head-to-head record. But with their recent home form being so poor, I'm not convinced that's the value play here.

Looking at the both teams to score market at 1.62, that's where I see the real value. Both sides have been scoring regularly, and Kayserispor's defensive record away from home is absolutely shocking. They've conceded 2+ goals in most of their away matches, and Rizespor, despite their home struggles, do know where the goal is.

The goal expectancy has Rizespor at 1.88 and Kayserispor at 1.52, which suggests we're in for goals. And with both teams having high BTTS percentages, this looks like the smart money to me.

Sometimes you've got to look beyond the obvious home win and find the real value, and I reckon that's exactly what we've got here with both teams to score.