Roda vs Jong AZ Prediction

Roda host Jong AZ on 30 October in the Eerste Divisie, and the market has Roda as the favourite at 1.7. But when I pull the numbers apart, the picture looks a lot less comfortable for the home side than the price suggests.

Roda's home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses — a 25% win rate that doesn't match the 58.82% the market is pricing in. Their 1.1 points per game at home and 1.45 goals conceded per game paint a picture of a side that struggles to hold a lead on their own ground. Yes, they've won their last two matches — 3-2 at Almere City FC and 2-1 at Jong Utrecht — and their defence has been solid in the last 10 games, conceding just 0.9 per game with 4 clean sheets. But that recent run sits on top of a home record that simply doesn't support the price they're being offered.

Jong AZ, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 20 away games, with 3 draws and 7 losses. That's a 50% win rate on the road, with 2.7 goals scored per game away. Their attack is the real story here — 54 goals in 20 away games is the standout figure in this fixture. The defence is leaky (2.15 conceded per game away, 0 clean sheets in the last 10), but that's a two-way street and it doesn't change the fact that Jong AZ are the more dangerous side on the road.

The head-to-head reinforces the case. In the last 12 months, Jong AZ have won both meetings: 2-0 at their own ground in April and 3-2 at Roda's ground in December. At this specific venue, Roda have 0 wins and 0 draws in the recent record — just that 2-3 loss. The older meetings (a 3-3 draw in February 2025 and a 6-1 Jong AZ win in August 2024) are historical and don't carry the same weight, but they do confirm this is a fixture where Jong AZ have had the edge.

The counter-argument is Roda's recent form. Three wins in the last five, a 2.0 points per game rate, and a defence that has kept 4 clean sheets in 10 games. They've scored 8 and conceded 6 in that span. If they're in that rhythm on the day, the home advantage and defensive solidity could keep them in the game. And the market's 58.82% for a Roda win isn't crazy — it's just not supported by the 20-game home record or the head-to-head evidence.

Key Points:

• Roda's home record: 5W 7D 8L in 20 games (25% wins) vs Jong AZ's away record: 10W 3D 7L in 20 games (50% wins)

• Jong AZ won both recent H2H meetings (2-0 and 3-2); Roda have no win or draw at this venue in the recent record

• Roda's last 2 wins are encouraging, but their home record over 20 games doesn't back the 1.7 price

• Jong AZ's away scoring (2.7 per game) is the key weapon; their defence is vulnerable but that's a two-way street

• The 4.4 price on a Jong AZ win is underpriced relative to the away record and H2H evidence

The numbers say Jong AZ are the stronger side on the road, the head-to-head agrees, and the market is paying too little for that. I'm taking the away win at 4.4.