Preview
Pajimon here, boys! Grab yourself a cold one and let's crack this one open. Rodez host Montpellier at their ground on 19 October, and I'm telling you, the numbers don't lie on this one.
Montpellier are flying. Their last 10 games across all venues read 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, and the defence is the real story — 0.7 goals conceded per game and 6 clean sheets in that stretch. On the road, over their last 20 away games, Montpellier have kept 11 clean sheets and conceded just 0.7 per game. That is a defensive record that makes you think twice before you back the home side. You look at that and you go, "mama, that's a wall." And I mean that as a fact, not a fancy word — 11 out of 20 away games with nothing conceded.
Now look at Rodez. Their last 5 games: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses. They've scored 6 and conceded 11 in that span, which is 2.2 goals a game leaking out. In their last 10, they've managed 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, and only 1 clean sheet. The home record over 20 games looks decent — 12 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses — but those 20 games span 11 months, and the recent form at that ground tells a different story. They lost 3-4 to Nancy and 0-1 to Grenoble at home in September, and the only win in that last 5 was a 2-0 friendly against Inter Club d'Escaldes on 3 October. The current run has them losing their last game, scoring 0 and conceding 2 at Saint Etienne.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months is telling. Montpellier won 4-2 at their ground in August (a friendly) and 2-0 at their ground in October 2025. Rodez did grab a 1-0 at their own ground back in February, but that's 8 months ago and the form since has gone the other way. At Rodez's ground in the recent meetings, there's only been that one game, and it went to Rodez. At Montpellier's ground, they've won both.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Rodez's home record over 20 games is solid, and they did win the last meeting at their ground. Also, Montpellier's away record over 20 games shows 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses — not perfect. And Rodez's attack, at 1.8 goals per game in their last 10, is actually scoring more than Montpellier's 1.3. So Rodez aren't without a route to goal, and the home record does give them a base to work from.
But here's the thing — Montpellier's defence is the difference. 6 clean sheets in 10 games, 11 in 20 away games. Rodez failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and 3 of their last 10. You're looking at a team that can't keep the ball in the net meeting a team that can't get it out of the net. That's a tough combination for the home side.
Key Points:
- Montpellier: 6W 3D 1L in last 10, 0.7 conceded per game, 6 clean sheets
- Rodez: 1W 0D 4L in last 5, 2.2 conceded per game, 1 clean sheet
- Montpellier away: 11 clean sheets in 20 games, 0.7 conceded per game
- H2H last 12 months: Montpellier won 2 of 3 recent meetings
- Rodez failed to score in 3 of their last 10 games
My verdict: Montpellier away win at 2.62.
