Roskilde vs Vendsyssel FF Prediction

The 2. Division clash between Roskilde and Vendsyssel FF kicks off on 2026-04-11. As Value Vinny, I don't care about the hype; I care about the numbers. The bookmakers are pricing Vendsyssel FF at 2.55 for an away win, implying a 39.2% probability. My analysis suggests the true probability is closer to 46%, creating a 6.8% edge. That's the kind of value I hunt for.

Vendsyssel FF is in exceptional form. In their last 10 games, they have 7 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses. Their win rate is 70%. They just defeated Roskilde 3-0 on 2026-04-06, just five days before this fixture. That recent result is a massive signal. Roskilde, on the other hand, is struggling. Their last 10 games show 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses. More importantly, they have lost their last three league matches, including the 0-3 defeat to Vendsyssel.

Roskilde has a strong historical home record against Vendsyssel (4-1-1), but recent form overrides history. Vendsyssel's defense is rock solid, conceding only 0.30 goals per game in their last 10 fixtures. They have kept 70% clean sheets. Roskilde's attack averages 1.20 goals per game, but against Vendsyssel's defense, that number drops significantly. The goal expectancy model predicts 0.75 goals for Roskilde and 1.83 for Vendsyssel, totaling 2.58 goals. This supports an Over 2.5 Goals bet, but the Away Win is the sharper value play.

The odds for an Away Win at 2.55 are undervaluing Vendsyssel's current dominance. If we assume a 46% win probability, the edge is 6.8%, meeting the 6% threshold. Roskilde's home goal expectancy is low (0.75), while Vendsyssel's away goal expectancy is high (1.83). This suggests Vendsyssel will score, and Roskilde will struggle to break through the 70% clean sheet rate.

Key Points:

• Vendsyssel FF is undefeated in their last 10 games (7W, 3D, 0L).

• Vendsyssel defeated Roskilde 3-0 just 5 days prior.

• Roskilde has lost their last 3 league matches.

• Vendsyssel's defense concedes only 0.30 goals per game.

• Goal expectancy favors Vendsyssel scoring 1.83 goals.

Summary: The math points to Vendsyssel FF securing a victory. The odds offer value. My pick is Away Win.

Recommended Bet: Away Win