Ross County vs Airdrie United Prediction

Ross County arrive at this fixture in outstanding form. Five wins from five, 32 goals scored, just 3 conceded. The 7-1 thrashing of Queen of the South on 17 October and the 5-0 away at Montrose a week before that paint a picture of a side that is simply too strong for this level. At home, their record over 20 games is 12 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, with 2.85 goals per game and 8 clean sheets. This is a team that is scoring at a rate that makes the opposition look like they're playing in a different competition.

Airdrie United, by contrast, are struggling on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses, with just 1.0 points per game and 1.4 goals scored per game. They lost their most recent match, 1-2 at home to Hamilton Academical on 17 October, and their form over the last 10 games shows 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses but with only 2.5 goals per game. The 10 losses on the road tell you that Airdrie United are a team that gets pinned down away from home.

The head-to-head tells an interesting story. At Ross County's ground, Airdrie United have won both recent meetings — 0-4 in April and 1-2 in December. However, the two most recent meetings overall, both at Airdrie's ground in July and August, were comfortable Ross County wins (3-0 and 3-1). The recency of Ross County's form makes those older venue results less relevant. What matters is that the last two times these two met, Ross County won comfortably.

The goals data is the key here. Ross County have gone over 2.5 in all 5 of their last matches, 14 of their last 20 home games, and 9 of their last 10 overall. Airdrie's away record shows 12 of 20 over 2.5. The recent head-to-head has seen over 2.5 in 4 of 5 meetings. Ross County are averaging 6.4 goals per game in their last five, and even Airdrie are scoring 2.8 per game. When you combine a side scoring at that rate with an opponent who is conceding 1.6 per game on the road, the goals are coming. The 0-4 and 1-2 at this venue showed Airdrie can score here, and Ross County's recent output makes it hard to imagine them being held to a single goal.

The counter-argument is the head-to-head at this specific venue. Airdrie United have won both times here — 0-4 in April and 1-2 in December — and in both cases Ross County were held to a single goal or less. But those results are months old, and the form since has been a different world. Ross County have not lost in five, and their scoring output is at a level that makes a low-scoring result very hard to imagine.

Key Points:

• Ross County have won their last 5, scoring 32 and conceding just 3

• Airdrie United's away record: 5W 5D 10L over 20 games, 1.0 PPG

• H2H at Ross County's ground: Airdrie won both (0-4, 1-2), but the two most recent meetings were Ross County wins

• Over 2.5 in 5/5 of Ross County's last 5, 14/20 at home, 4/5 in recent H2H

• Ross County averaging 6.4 goals per game in their last five matches

My pick: over 2.5 goals.