Saint Etienne vs PAU Prediction

Ag man, this is a proper top-of-the-table clash in Ligue 2! Saint Etienne sitting 4th with 20 points hosting 3rd-placed PAU on 21 points - just one point between these bokkies, so it's bound to be a cracker!

Saint Etienne's recent form has been a bit up and down, hey. They got hammered 4-0 by Annecy in their last game, and before that lost 2-3 at home to Le Mans. That's two losses in three games - not great for a team chasing promotion. But here's the thing about Saint Etienne at home: they score goals for fun! Averages 2.4 goals per game at home, which is lekker. Problem is, they also leak like a sieve at the back - 1.8 goals conceded per home game. Their home games are basically end-to-end affairs!

PAU on the other hand has been solid on the road. Unbeaten in their last 5 away trips - 2 wins and 3 draws. They only concede 1.0 goals per game away, which is proper tight defense. They also score 1.8 per game on their travels, so they're no pushovers going forward. They did lose 0-3 to Dunkerque in their last game, but that was at home.

Head-to-head, it's pretty even between these two. Two wins each and one draw from four meetings. Both teams tend to score when they face each other - happened in 2 of the 4 matches.

Looking at the stats, Saint Etienne loves to keep the ball (64.4% possession vs PAU's 50%), but PAU is more clinical with their shots. The key battle will be Saint Etienne's attack against PAU's solid away defense.

Given how both teams play - Saint Etienne scoring plenty at home but also conceding, and PAU being solid away but still capable of scoring - I'm expecting goals from both sides here. The BTTS market at 1.62 looks like good value to me.