Saint Etienne vs Rodez Prediction

Saint Etienne sit comfortably in control of this fixture on the numbers. Their home record over the last 20 games at their ground reads 14 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with 2.75 goals scored per game and just 0.85 conceded. That is a record that leaves very little room for doubt. Rodez, by contrast, have won 8 of their last 20 away games, drawn 7 and lost 5, scoring 1.6 per game and conceding 1.45. The gap between these two sides on the relevant venue records is clear.

The recent form tells the same story. Saint Etienne have won 3 of their last 5 matches, drawing 1 and losing 1, and in that span they have scored 14 goals while conceding 8. Every one of those 5 games went over 2.5 goals. Rodez have won just 1 of their last 5, drawing 1 and losing 3, and they have conceded 11 goals in that period. Over the last 10 games across all venues, Saint Etienne have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1, while Rodez have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5. The contrast in points per game — 2.5 to 1.1 — is stark.

The head-to-head over the last 12 months is split: a 0–0 draw at Saint Etienne's ground in May and a 2–1 Rodez win at their own ground in the same month. That is a mild concern, but it is only two meetings. The older meetings at Saint Etienne's ground — a 4–0 and a 2–0 in 2025 and 2024 — are historical record and I will not treat them as a trend, but they do confirm that this venue has been difficult for Rodez.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Rodez did score in the 2–1 meeting at their own ground, and their away record does include 8 wins in 20 games. They are not a team that simply folds. The 0–0 at Saint Etienne's ground in May showed that Rodez can park the bus and survive. However, that was a Ligue 1 fixture, and the broader evidence — Saint Etienne's 14 wins from 20 home games, Rodez's 5 losses from 20 away games, and the 8-to-3 win comparison over the last 10 — points firmly one way.

Key Points:

• Saint Etienne have won 14 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.75 per game and conceding 0.85.

• Rodez have lost 5 of their last 20 away games and conceded 1.45 per game on the road.

• Saint Etienne's last 5 matches all went over 2.5 goals; Rodez have lost 3 of their last 5.

• The recent head-to-head is split (one draw, one Rodez win), but the venue record and current form favour the hosts.

• Saint Etienne's latest 10: 8W 1D 1L. Rodez's latest 10: 3W 2D 5L.

I am recommending the Saint Etienne home win.