Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction

Right, let's have a chat about this one. Samsunspor at home against Trabzonspor, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Samsunspor have been in a bit of a mess. Four losses in a row, and the scoreboard tells the story: one goal scored, nine conceded. That 1-5 hammering from Çorum FK at home on 12 September was ugly, and the 0-2 to Fenerbahçe on 30 August wasn't pretty either. Their only win in the last five was a 2-0 at Rizespor back in August, and since then it's been all down the back channel. Their xG numbers over six recent games — 1.09 per game for, 1.49 per game against — suggest the attack isn't clicking and the defence is leaking like a sieve.

Trabzonspor, on the other hand, have been in a different world. A 4-0 thrashing of Galatasaray on 19 September and a 5-0 demolition of Gençlerbirliği on 6 September show a side with real teeth. Yes, they dropped a 0-1 friendly to Drogheda United on 1 October, but that's a warm-up, not a competitive test. Their away record over 20 games is 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, and they score 1.75 per game on the road. That's a side that can hurt you.

The head-to-head at Samsunspor's ground is telling. Two recent meetings, both at this venue: a 0-0 draw in April and a 0-3 Trabzonspor win in February. Samsunspor haven't beaten them here in the last 12 months, and that 0-3 scoreline from February shows what happens when Trabzonspor get their act together.

Now, the counter-argument. Samsunspor's 20-game home record does show they can win at home — 8 times — and Trabzonspor's away form isn't perfect with 7 losses in 20. The friendly loss to Drogheda, while not a competitive test, does show they can be vulnerable on a bad day. And that 0-0 draw in April suggests this fixture can go quiet. But when you stack up the evidence — Samsunspor's four-game losing streak, the H2H at this ground, Trabzonspor's recent scoring form — the visitors have the edge.

The market has Trabzonspor at 2.06, which prices them at about 48.5%. I'd put their chance closer to 53%, which means there's a bit of value in the away win. Samsunspor need to find a goal and a bit of confidence, and that's a tall order when you've only managed one in the last four.

Key Points:

• Samsunspor have lost their last four, scoring just 1 and conceding 9

• Trabzonspor won 4-0 and 5-0 in their last two competitive home games

• At Samsunspor's ground, the last two meetings ended 0-0 and 0-3

• Trabzonspor's away record: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, scoring 1.75 per game

• Samsunspor's xG against is 1.49 per game over six recent matches

I'm going with the Trabzonspor away win at 2.06.