Preview
May the form be with you, friends. And in this case, the form speaks louder than the words.
San Antonio have not scored a single goal in their last five matches. Not one. Three 0–0 draws, a 0–1 defeat at Las Vegas Lights, and a 0–7 friendly loss to SV Darmstadt 98 on 30 September. Strip away the friendly and the picture is even starker: four competitive games, zero goals. Their last ten matches tell the same story — eight of those ten saw them fail to score, and five of those ten were 0–0 draws. At home, over twenty games, they have failed to score in ten of twenty. The silence from the San Antonio attack is not a whisper; it is a void.
New Mexico United, by contrast, arrive with fire in their belly. Two wins in a row — 3–1 over Monterey Bay and 2–1 against Phoenix Rising — have left them on a run of five goals scored and two conceded. In their last ten matches, they have scored 1.8 goals per game and found the net in eight of those ten. Their away record over twenty games shows nine wins, five draws and six losses, with 1.25 goals per game on the road. They are not a team that sits quiet.
The head-to-head at this ground, on 22 March, was a 1–0 San Antonio win. The two meetings at New Mexico United's ground in the last twelve months were 1–2 and 2–0. So in three recent meetings, only one saw both teams find the net. That is the counter-argument to the quiet: at least one of these recent meetings saw both sides find the net. New Mexico United's recent scoring form, in particular, suggests they will not be content to park the bus. And the market, with its implied 47.62% on the under-2.5, clearly sees a decent chance of goals flowing.
But here is the thing, and I say it with the weight of a thousand sunsets: a team that has not scored in five matches is not going to suddenly find its voice in the sixth. The evidence points firmly to at least one team finishing scoreless. San Antonio's last five were all scoreless from their end. Their last ten had eight scoreless games. Even their twenty-game home record carries ten games where they found no goal. New Mexico United, while in fine form, have failed to score in eight of their twenty away games. The both-teams-not-to-score market sits at 2.1, and I see a better-than-even chance that at least one of these sides goes home without a goal. The quiet one wins.
Key Points:
- San Antonio have scored zero goals in their last five matches and failed to score in 8 of their last 10.
- New Mexico United are on a two-game winning run, scoring 5 and conceding 2 in those games.
- The recent head-to-head at San Antonio's ground was a 1–0 home win; one of the three recent meetings saw both teams score.
- San Antonio's home record over 20 games includes 11 clean sheets and 10 games where they failed to score.
- New Mexico United's away record over 20 games shows 1.25 goals per game and 8 games where they failed to score.
The quiet one wins. I recommend both teams not to score.
