Preview
Mr SimpleSantos Laguna and Club Queretaro meet on 17 October, and if you've been following Queretaro's recent output, you'll know they've been playing some proper tight football. Four wins and a draw from their last five, with just two goals conceded across the lot. Three of those five were clean sheets, and their last two victories — 2–0 at Chivas and 2–0 at home to Atlante — were both shut-outs. That's a side that's organised, disciplined, and hard to break down.
Their away record over the last 20 games tells a similar story: 8 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses, 1.5 points per game. That edges out Santos Laguna's home numbers, which sit at 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses and 1.35 points per game over the same 20-game stretch. And the real story is in the recent form — Queretaro are averaging 0.4 goals conceded per game in their last five, while Santos are leaking one a game. Queretaro's xG against sits at 0.99 per game across four matches with data, which is a side that's not just winning, they're winning without getting rattled.
Now, Santos Laguna have their own case. They've won their last four — 2–1 at San Luis, 1–0 to Pachuca, 3–2 at Toluca, and 2–1 to Juárez — and that's a run that's got real momentum. They also won the most recent head-to-head at this ground back in October 2025, 3–1. And their scoring has been up there: 1.3 goals per game in their last ten, which is more than Queretaro's 1.1. So they're not sitting still, and a four-game winning run is something you don't ignore.
But here's the thing. The head-to-head is thin — just two meetings in the last 12 months, one a 2–2 draw at Queretaro and one a 3–1 Santos win here. That's not enough to call a pattern. And when you look at Queretaro's last five, the defensive discipline is the standout. They've kept three clean sheets, conceded just two goals, and their away record over 20 games has them conceding 1.2 per game. Santos, by contrast, have conceded in four of their last five games and only kept one clean sheet. Against a side that's been scoring 1.8 per game and keeping things tight, that's a concern.
Key Points:
- Club Queretaro have won 4 of their last 5, conceding just 2 goals and keeping 3 clean sheets
- Queretaro's away record (1.5 ppg over 20 games) outperforms Santos' home record (1.35 ppg)
- Santos Laguna won the last head-to-head at this ground (3–1) but the H2H is only 2 meetings in 12 months
- Queretaro's last 2 wins were both 2–0 clean sheets; Santos have conceded in 4 of their last 5
- The market has Queretaro at 2.81 (35.59% implied), but their recent defensive form suggests they're worth more than that
I'm going with the away win for Club Queretaro at 2.81.