Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash. It's the league's bottom side, Santos Laguna, hosting mid-table FC Juarez. On the face of it, you'd think this is a chance for the home side to get off the mark, but the numbers tell a more interesting story.

Santos have had a nightmare start, losing both their opening games 3-1. That's them rock bottom with zero points. But hold your horses – their recent results at home tell a different tale. In their last six games at their own gaff, they've won four and lost just two. They beat the likes of Pachuca 1-0 and Leon 2-0 not too long ago. The problem is, they've been shipping goals lately, letting in three against both Necaxa and Toluca in their last two outings.

FC Juarez, on the other hand, are a bit of a mixed bag. They started with a nice 2-1 win away at Mazatlán, but then lost 0-1 at home to a strong Guadalajara Chivas side. Their recent results show they can be a tough nut to crack on the road – they got a 0-0 draw away at league leaders Toluca back in November. But they also concede plenty, letting in an average of 1.9 goals per game over their last ten.

Now, the head-to-head is a funny one. Overall, Juarez have the upper hand with five wins to Santos' three. But when Santos are at home, it's a different kettle of fish – they've won three of the four meetings there. Although, it's worth noting Juarez did win the last clash 2-1, which might have been at Santos.

Let's talk about the most important bit for us punters: goals. Both these sides love a leaky defence. Santos concede 1.8 goals per game on average, while Juarez let in 1.9. Looking at the recent form, both teams have scored in 60% of Santos' last ten games and a whopping 80% of Juarez's. That's a massive signal. Santos score 1.5 per game at home, Juarez score 1.4 on the road. It's got goals written all over it.

The bookies have Juarez as slight favourites at 2.20, with Santos at 2.90. But the real value, in my book, is in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.73, which is short. The smart play, given the stats, is Both Teams to Score. The odds of 1.62 look generous when you consider how often these two both find the net.

Key Points:

Santos Laguna are bottom but have a strong 66.67% home win rate in their last six at home.

FC Juarez have a decent 40% away win rate but concede nearly two goals per game on average.

Head-to-head: Juarez lead overall (5 wins to 3), but Santos have won 3 of 4 at home against them.

Both Teams to Score has landed in 60% of Santos' last 10 games and 80% of Juarez's.

• Recent results: Santos lost 1-3 and 1-3; Juarez won 2-1 and lost 0-1.

The Simple Tip:

All the signs point to both nets bulging. Santos need a result and will attack at home, but their defence is shaky. Juarez score and concede on their travels. At odds of 1.62, Both Teams to Score - Yes is the clear value bet here.