Santos Laguna vs Necaxa Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash. Santos Laguna welcome Necaxa to their gaff, and if you're after a quiet 0-0, you might want to look elsewhere. This one's got goals written all over it, and I'll tell you why.

First, the table don't lie much – Santos are 11th, Necaxa are 13th. Both have had their struggles this season, but the recent form book tells a more interesting story. Santos have been a different beast at home, winning four of their last six on their own patch, including a tidy 1-0 against Pachuca and a 2-0 over Leon. They're conceding just one goal a game at home, which is decent. But here's the kicker – they're coming off a mammoth 62-day break! That's either a lovely fresh-legged squad or a bunch of blokes who've forgotten what a football feels like.

Now, Necaxa. What a funny old side. They can't buy a clean sheet – none in their last ten outings – but blimey, they can score. They're banging in over two goals a game on average, even if they're letting in nearly three when they travel. Their last trip? A 5-3 friendly loss to Atlas. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Mazatlán. They're about as solid at the back as a chocolate teapot, but going forward they're a real threat. Just ask Santos – they stuffed 'em 4-1 back in November!

And that's the head-to-head for you. Necaxa have had the upper hand lately, winning five of the last nine meetings. The last five games between these two have seen both teams score in four of 'em, and seven of the nine overall have had over 2.5 goals. It's a proper fixture for the neutrals.

So what's gonna happen? Santos will be itching for revenge after that 4-1 pasting, and with their strong home form, they'll fancy their chances. Necaxa, though, won't be scared. They score for fun away from home (over two a game) and will back themselves to get at that Santos defence. With Santos netting 1.33 at home and Necaxa shipping three on the road, chances are both nets are gonna ripple.

The bookies have Necaxa as favourites at 1.90, which feels a bit short given their dodgy away record. The value, for my money, isn't in picking a winner here – it's in the goals market. Both Teams to Score is priced at 1.57, and given the stats, that looks like a stone-cold steal.

Key Points:

Santos are strong at home (W4, L2 last 6) but haven't played in two months.

Necaxa score (2.29/game) and concede (3.00/game) loads on their travels.

The last H2H was a 4-1 Necaxa win – revenge is in the air.

Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

• Necaxa have kept zero clean sheets in their last ten matches.

The Simple Verdict:

This has all the makings of a proper end-to-end thriller. Santos will be up for it at home, Necaxa never know when to shut up shop. I can see goals at both ends, so we're backing the obvious: both teams to find the net.