Santos Laguna vs Necaxa Prediction

Santos Laguna are flying at home right now, and that's the story that jumps out of this one. Four wins from their last five, including a 5-0 hammering of Club Queretaro and a 2-0 over Pumas at their own ground, and they've only dropped points in that stretch through a 1-4 defeat at Club Tijuana six days ago. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've picked up 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 1.8 a game and keeping it to 1.2 conceded. At home specifically, across 20 games, they've won 10, drawn 3 and lost 7, conceding just 0.85 per game and picking up 8 clean sheets. That's a solid home record, and the last three home games — 1-0 Pachuca, 5-0 Queretaro, 2-0 Pumas — show a side that's comfortable and confident on their patch.

Necaxa, on the other hand, are in a bit of a mess. They haven't won in their last 10 games — 4 draws and 6 losses — and their last 5 has been 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. They've conceded 11 in those 5 games, 2.2 a game, and only managed 6. Away from home, the numbers get worse: 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in 20 away games, conceding 1.85 per game and picking up just 2 clean sheets in that stretch. They simply don't have the form to travel with confidence right now.

Now, the counter-argument is the head-to-head. In the last 12 months, Necaxa have won both meetings — 3-1 at Santos Laguna's ground in January and 4-1 at their own in November. That's only two meetings, and the form gap between the two sides has widened significantly since those games. Santos Laguna's 1-4 loss to Tijuana six days ago also stings, but it was on the road and the rest of their recent home form has been comfortable. The market has Santos Laguna at 1.85, which prices them at 54.05%, but the football evidence points to a higher chance of a home win given how dominant Santos have been at home and how toothless Necaxa have been on the road.

Key Points:

• Santos Laguna have won 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 10, with 3 clean sheets in 5

• Necaxa have gone 10 games without a win, conceding 2.0 per game in that stretch

• Santos Laguna's home record: 10W 3D 7L in 20, 0.85 conceded per game

• Necaxa's away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20, 1.85 conceded per game

• Both recent H2H meetings went to Necaxa, but the form gap has shifted dramatically since

My pick: Santos Laguna home win at 1.85. The form gap is too big to ignore, and the home numbers back it up.