Santos welcome Bahia to their ground on 25 October, and the numbers tell a story of two teams travelling very different roads.
Santos arrive with the momentum of a side that has won three of their last five, scoring nine goals and conceding seven across that stretch. Their last outing was a 2-1 victory at Fluminense's ground on 18 October, and before that they drew 2-2 with Flamengo at home. The home record over 20 games is the real anchor: 9 wins, 8 draws, 3 losses, with 1.55 goals scored per game and 1.05 conceded. Eight clean sheets in those 20 home fixtures is a quiet but telling number. The force, it is, in the home record.
Bahia, by contrast, have lost three of their last five. The 0-3 defeat to Flamengo at home on 18 October was the most recent, and before that they fell 0-1 at Palmeiras and 1-2 at Atletico Paranaense on the road. Their away record over 20 games reads 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, with 1.35 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Only four clean sheets in 20 away trips. The last 10 games across all venues show 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, and they have failed to score in three of those ten. The road, it is not kind to them.
The head-to-head is thin. One meeting within the last 12 months: a 2-2 draw at Bahia's ground in April 2026. At Santos's ground, the only meeting on record is a 2-2 draw from April 2025, which is historical. The older meetings at Bahia's ground show a 2-0 Bahia win, a 1-2 Santos win, and a 1-1 draw, but those are dated and do not speak to current form. The history, it is old, and the old does not tell you what the young will do.
The strongest case for Santos is the gap in the home-and-away tables. Santos score more per game at home (1.55 to 1.35), concede less (1.05 to 1.5), and keep more clean sheets (8 to 4). Bahia's away record carries 8 losses in 20 games, and their recent form on the road has been a pair of defeats. The counter-argument is the 8 draws in Santos's 20 home games. That is a high draw rate, and it reminds us that this fixture has a history of level scores, including the 2-2 at Bahia's ground six months ago. A side that draws 40% of its home games is not one you can bank on to win every time. The draws, they are the shadow that follows the wins.
Key Points:
- Santos: 9W 8D 3L at home over 20 games; 3W 1D 1L in the last five
- Bahia: 7W 5D 8L away over 20 games; 2W 0D 3L in the last five
- One recent head-to-head meeting: 2-2 draw at Bahia's ground, April 2026
- Santos have scored in all 5 recent games; Bahia have failed to score in 2 of 5
- Santos concede 1.05 per game at home; Bahia concede 1.5 per game away
The numbers favour Santos, but the 8 draws in 20 home games and a head-to-head that offers little beyond a single recent 2-2 draw leave me unable to rate the home win with the confidence the 1.98 price demands. No bet.
