Preview
PajimonLook, I'm sitting here with a cold one in my hand, staring at this fixture, and I gotta say — this one's got me excited. Sarmiento Junin are hosting River Plate at their ground on 14 October in the Liga Profesional Argentina, and the numbers tell a story that's hard to ignore.
Here's the thing that's got me leaning forward: both these teams have been scoring in virtually every game they've played recently. Sarmiento Junin have failed to score in 0 of their last 5 matches — they've put the ball in the net every single time. River Plate? Same story. 0 of their last 5. That means in 4 of Sarmiento's last 5 games and 4 of River's last 5, both sides crossed the line. Sarmiento's last 10 shows 7 of 10 with both teams scoring, and River's last 10 shows 6 of 10. When you stack that up, the recent form is screaming that this is a game where both boxes get ticked.
Now, the home and away records over 20 games paint a slightly different picture. Sarmiento at home have had 13 of 20 games where at least one side didn't score, and River away have had 12 of 20. So the longer stretch says "maybe not," but the last five games for each side say "yes, absolutely." I'm weighting the recent form here because that's what's actually happening on the pitch right now. Sarmiento are on a one-game winning run after that 3–1 away at Aldosivi on 9 October, and River came back from a loss to Huracan on 19 September to win 1–0 at home against Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto on 11 October.
River Plate's away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses, with 1.05 goals scored per game and 0.8 conceded. Sarmiento at home over 20 games: 11 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses, 1.15 scored per game, 0.9 conceded. Sarmiento's home numbers are solid, but River's away defence is tight. The head-to-head is mostly historical — the only meeting within the last 12 months was River Plate 2–0 at their ground on 15 March. At Sarmiento's ground, the older meetings show a 1–1 draw and a 0–2 River Plate win, but those are dated and I'm not building my case on them.
The counter-argument? Well, River's away record does show 7 draws in 20 games, and Sarmiento at home have 11 wins in 20. Sarmiento's home form is not nothing. And River did lose to Huracan 1–2 at home on 19 September, so they're not untouchable. The longer home/away records do show a lower BTTS rate — 35% for Sarmiento at home, 40% for River away. That's the bear case. But the last five games for each side have completely overridden that trend.
Key Points:
- Sarmiento Junin have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; River Plate have scored in all 5 of theirs.
- Both teams' last 5 games show 4 of 5 with both sides scoring (BTTS yes).
- Sarmiento's home record over 20 games: 11W 2D 7L, 1.15 goals per game.
- River's away record over 20 games: 8W 7D 5L, 0.8 goals conceded per game.
- The only recent head-to-head (15 March) was River Plate 2–0 at their ground.
My verdict: both teams to score, at 2.2. I rate the chance of both sides finding the net at around 55%, which sits comfortably above the market's 45.45% implied probability. The recent form is too strong to ignore — both teams are scoring in almost every game, and this fixture has the ingredients for an open, goal-filled afternoon. Grab your braai tongs and your beer, because I reckon we're in for a good one.