Preview
Mr SimpleRosenborg arrive at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground in sensational form. Four wins and a draw in their last five, with 15 goals scored and just 6 conceded. In their last 10 matches across all competitions, they've won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1, averaging 3.4 goals per game while conceding just 1.1. The 5-3 thrashing of Tromsø, the 4-1 away win at Fløya, and the 3-1 at Kristiansund all speak to a side that is scoring with real intent and a defence that's keeping its shape.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, by contrast, have been inconsistent. Their last five brings 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 10 scored and 8 conceded. The 4-2 away win at Aalesund and the 2-0 at Follo show they can produce, but the 1-3 home defeat to KFUM Oslo and the 2-2 draw with Valerenga at home suggest the defence is leaky. Their home record over 20 games is respectable — 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, 1.7 points per game — but that figure spans 12 months and older results dilute the picture.
The counter-argument for Sarpsborg is their home base. Over 20 home games, they've scored 1.55 per game and conceded 1.4, with 13 of those 20 seeing both teams find the net. Rosenborg's away record, though, is the real concern: 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses over 20 away games, 1.1 points per game. That's a poor record, and it spans the same 12-month window. The head-to-head at this venue is essentially blank — the only recent meeting between these two was at Rosenborg's ground in April, a 2-1 Rosenborg win. The older meetings at Sarpsborg's ground (a 2-2 draw in 2025) are historical and don't tell us much about the current dynamic.
The market prices Rosenborg's win at 2.52, implying a 39.68% chance. My own reading of the form — eight wins in ten, a 3.4-goal scoring rate, and a defence that's kept clean sheets in 4 of 10 — puts Rosenborg's chance of winning closer to 45%. That's a meaningful edge over the market's view, and the price at 2.52 offers genuine value for a side in this kind of shape.
Key Points:
- Rosenborg have won 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 3.4 per game
- Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, conceding 1.6 per game
- Rosenborg's away record over 20 games is 6W 4D 10L, but recent form tells a very different story
- Only one recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026, Rosenborg 2-1 at their ground)
- Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches
Verdict: I'm going with the Rosenborg away win at 2.52.