Sassuolo vs Juventus Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie A fixture. Sassuolo hosting Juventus is always a bit of a tasty one, and the numbers tell a story that's more interesting than the league table might suggest.

Sassuolo are sitting 9th, a decent enough mid-table spot, but their form is a proper rollercoaster. In their last ten, they've managed to pull off a brilliant 2-2 draw away at league leaders AC Milan and a stunning 3-0 win at Atalanta. But then they've also lost at home to the likes of Genoa and Torino. Blimey, make your mind up! At home, it's been a struggle for wins recently, with just one victory in their last five at their own gaff. They do score, mind you – 1.4 goals a game on average at home – but they also let them in at the other end just as often.

Juventus, on the other hand, are the model of consistency. Fifth in the table and with seven wins from their last ten, they're the clear favourites. Their only recent slip was a 2-1 loss away to a very good Napoli side. Even when they're not at their best, they grind out results, like that 1-0 win at Bologna. Away from home, they're solid, winning 60% of their last ten on the road and conceding just a goal a game on average.

Now, here's where it gets interesting for us punters. When these two meet, it's rarely a boring 0-0. Looking at the head-to-head, eight of the last nine clashes have seen over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in six of those nine. It's a proper pattern. Sassuolo's recent games have seen both teams score in 70% of them, and for Juventus, it's 60%. Sassuolo's defence has kept just one clean sheet in ten, while Juve have managed four. The stats scream that Sassuolo will likely find a way to score, but they'll almost certainly concede at the other end.

The bookies have Juventus at a short 1.75 to win, which feels about right but doesn't set the pulse racing. The value, in my book, lies elsewhere. With both teams to score priced at 1.91, and the history and current form pointing firmly in that direction, that's where the smart money looks to be.

Key Points:

Juventus are in far better form, winning 70% of their last ten.

Sassuolo are unpredictable but capable of scoring against anyone, as shown against AC Milan.

Head-to-head history is dominated by goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Sassuolo have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten matches.

• Juventus concede, on average, a goal per game away from home.

Summary:

While Juventus are the obvious pick for the win, the odds are skinny. The real value, given the relentless trend in this fixture and both teams' current tendencies, is in backing both teams to find the net. It's the bet that makes the maths work and should give us a proper run for our money.