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SC Freiburg arrive at this Bundesliga fixture on 11 October in exceptional form, having won nine of their last ten matches across all venues, with the sole blemish being a 2–2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September. At home, the picture is even more striking: over their last 20 home games, Freiburg have won 15, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 2.65 goals per game while conceding just 1.1. Their last three home matches produced scores of 4–2, 5–0 and 4–1, and in their last five matches overall they have scored 16 goals while conceding only 5.
FC Schalke 04, by contrast, are in a far less convincing state. Their last ten matches have yielded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 1.4 goals scored per game and 1.3 conceded. In their last five matches, they have failed to score in three of them, including two 0–0 draws at home against SV Elversberg and Bayern München. Away from home over 20 games, Schalke have won 10, drawn 5 and lost 5, scoring 1.6 per game.
The head-to-head record is entirely historical. The five most recent meetings all date back at least three years, with SC Freiburg winning every one, including three 4–0 victories at their own ground. While this pattern is notable, it cannot be treated as current form given the gap of several years between those fixtures and this one.
The strongest counter-argument to a Freiburg win is that Schalke are not without away credentials. Their 10 wins in 20 away games show they can compete on the road, and their 3–1 victory at Union Berlin on 11 September demonstrated they can score in numbers. The 0–0 draw with Bayern, while a draw, also showed they can hold a top side to a scoreless result. Freiburg's home record, while strong, does include 2 draws and 3 losses across those 20 games, meaning the outcome is not as one-sided as the recent form might suggest.
Key Points:
- SC Freiburg: 9W 1D 0L in last 10; 15W 2D 3L in 20 home games; 3.3 goals scored per game in last 10
- FC Schalke 04: 4W 3D 3L in last 10; failed to score in 3 of last 5; 1.4 goals scored per game in last 10
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (last meeting 3 years ago); SC Freiburg won all 5
- Freiburg's home scoring (2.65 per game) dwarfs Schalke's away scoring (1.6 per game)
- Schalke's away record (10W 5D 5L) shows they are not without a path to a result
The form gap between these two sides is significant, but the 20-game home and away records show that neither side's record is so dominant that I can call this a certainty. I am not comfortable recommending a bet here.
Verdict: No Bet.